It's hard to believe the Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs was a Grade 2 race as recently as 2022. Thanks in part to hefty purse increases, the 1 1/8-mile race has regained the Grade 1 status it carried through much of the 2000s and 2010s.
Saturday's running of the Stephen Foster is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory. The purse has doubled from $1 million last year to $2 million this year, and likely as a result, the race has drawn three of the best older horses currently in training: 2025 Horse of the Year #3 Sovereignty (6-5), 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner #2 White Abarrio (3-1), and 2026 Dubai World Cup (G1) winner #5 Magnitude (7-2).
Churchill Downs, Saturday, June 27, 2026, Race 11Entries: Stephen Foster S. (G1)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Willy D's (KY) Luis Saez 124 Michael J. Maker 20/1 2 2White Abarrio (KY) Irad Ortiz, Jr. 124 Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. 3/1 3 3Sovereignty (KY) Junior Alvarado 124 William I. Mott 6/5 4 4Baeza (KY) Flavien Prat 124 William I. Mott 6/1 5 5Magnitude (KY) Jose L. Ortiz 124 Steven M. Asmussen 7/2 6 6Forged Steel (KY) John R. Velazquez 124 Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. 12/1 7 7Navajo Warrior (KY) Tyler Gaffalione 124 Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. 15/1
My top choice, unsurprising though it may be, is Sovereignty. He was the dominant three-year-old of 2025, compiling a near-perfect 5-for-6 season highlighted by triumphs in the Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont (G1), and Travers (G1). In the latter race, he romped by 10 lengths over next-out Oklahoma Derby (G3) winner Bracket Buster, with Magnitude another 10 3/4 lengths back in third place.
Sovereignty kicked off 2026 with an encouraging performance in the Oaklawn H. (G2). For the first time in his career, he set the pace, dueling with three-time Grade 1 winner Journalism through fractions of :23.13, :47.03, and 1:11.27. Sovereignty won the battle, but lost the war--he edged away from Journalism in the homestretch, but got run down in the final furlong by White Abarrio, who rated about 1 1/2 lengths behind Sovereignty and Journalism for much of the race before finishing fast to triumph by two lengths.
Even in defeat, Sovereignty ran strongly. He clocked his final three furlongs in :36.55 and his final furlong in :12.02.
With this solid comeback effort under his belt, I believe Sovereignty will move forward in the Stephen Foster. A revert to the stalking/closing tactics he utilized throughout 2025 should help his chances. Even with #6 Forged Steel (12-1) and #7 Navajo Warrior (15-1) slated to scratch per Marcus Hersh of the Daily Racing Form, there's enough speed in the Stephen Foster field to set up Sovereignty for a favorable trip. Magnitude usually sets or presses the pace, and longshot #1 Willy D's (20-1) has set the tempo in five of his last eight starts.
I'm confident Sovereignty can turn the tables on White Abarrio and add the Stephen Foster to his win tally.
For second place, I'm tempted to oppose the obvious candidates. White Abarrio is terrific on his best day, as he demonstrated in the Oaklawn H. But he's struggled with consistency throughout his career, and it's worth noting he's 0-for-2 at Churchill Downs. He's run two big races in a row this year, finishing second in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) prior to the Oaklawn H., and I think there's a chance he'll regress off his giant effort at Oaklawn.
Magnitude is another short-priced contender I don't fully trust. True, he's won three starts in a row. But his triumphs in the Clark (G2) and Razorback H. (G3) came against easier competition. And while he did defeat reigning Breeders' Cup Classic winner Forever Young by one length in the Dubai World Cup (G1), Forever Young--for the second year in a row--appeared to run below form six weeks after a hard-fought win in the Saudi Cup (G1). In the 2025 Dubai World Cup, Forever Young finished third behind Hit Show, who has proven most comfortable competing at the Grade 2 and Grade 3 level in the United States.
Instead of White Abarrio or Magnitude, my second choice in the Stephen Foster is #4 Baeza (6-1), who defeated Magnitude by 2 1/4 lengths in the 2025 Pennsylvania Derby (G1).
Baeza's Pennsylvania Derby triumph came after he competed admirably, but without success, against Sovereignty in a trio of graded stakes. Baeza ran third in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, then stepped up his game to finish second by one length against Sovereignty in the Jim Dandy (G2).
Baeza ran well under challenging circumstances when making his 2026 debut in the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs. When the gates opened, he leaned back, then hopped forward belatedly, spotting the field about four lengths. Then he was forced to rally six horses wide coming off the final turn. Nevertheless, he closed gamely down the lane to finish third, beaten only three-quarters of a length.
If Baeza breaks better in the Stephen Foster, I believe he can match or improve upon his best performances from 2025, putting him in the hunt for a top-two finish.
Selections
1st: Sovereignty
2nd: Baeza
3rd: Magnitude
4th: White Abarrio
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Stephen Foster?
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