Will Belmont Festival Be Turning Point for Top Sire?

In the fall of 1777, the Battles of Saratoga saw the American Continental Army prevail over the British Army. The victory convinced France to become involved in the Revolutionary War, a decision that helped turn the tide in favor of the Americans. 

Fast forward nearly 249 years, and the battle for top sire of 2026 could find itself hinging upon what happens June 4-7 at Saratoga Race Course, less than 10 miles from where many historians believe the Revolutionary War changed course. 

With 16 graded stakes scheduled over an action-packed four-day stretch at The Spa, current leading sire Not This Time  and seven-time defending leading sire Into Mischief  might find their situations on the North American General Sires List different than they do today.

As of June 1, Not This Time holds a $2,126,770 advantage in progeny earnings over Into Mischief. When the dust settles, perhaps any change is negligible. But with just under $10 million in purse money just from graded stakes, the ingredients for upheaval are present.

Across the first four days of the five-day Belmont Racing Festival, Into Mischief has 20 of his offspring entered in races, including two in the $2 million Belmont Stakes(G1), while Not This Time has 17 and none in the weekend's headline race. If Into Mischief's Belmont contenders—Commandment and Renegade—finish 1-2, that alone is worth $1.56 million with $1.2 million going to the winner. 

Of course, this is not to suggest the race to the top is only between these two remarkable stallions. They are the top two and will come out of the festival Nos. 1 and 2 even when you factor in racing outside of New York. 

A look at the entries for Saratoga this weekend and there is no shortage of runners representing No. 3-ranked Gun Runner  (more than $4 million behind Into Mischief at No. 2), Nyquist , and Curlin . These three sires have $1,534,596 separating Nos. 3-5.

While racing at Saratoga is nowhere near on par with the bloodshed that led to this country's independence, what we do know is that when this weekend is over, the leading sire landscape might look very different. 

Elsewhere in the rankings, there was no substantive movement. The top 13 sires remained unchanged from two weeks ago. But of the next 12 sires, all but one changed position in the rankings. The late Speightstown was the biggest gainer, moving up two spots to No. 23. 

Connect , who moved up one spot to position No. 21, will be exiting the North American General Sires List. The sire, who has stood at Lane's End, was purchased and will relocate to Turkey. He began his stud career in 2018 and has stood at Lane's End near Versailles, Ky., this year for $10,000. His leading runner this year is Ocelli, who was third in this year's Kentucky Derby and is targeting the Ohio Derby (G3).