Summer fair racing in Northern California faces a precarious future following a Jan. 28 announcement from the California Authority of Racing Fairs that it would not submit a future race meet application.
Absent a collection of individual fair tracks conducting Northern California meets in place of CARF and securing stabling and training for Northern California horses, fair racing in the north could cease or be significantly diminished. Previously, CARF managed operations for most of the Northern California fair meets except for Santa Rosa.
"We're reaching out to the other fairs and seeing if there's any interest or common ground," said Andy Titus, president of the board of directors for the Humboldt County Fair Association. "Are there ways that we can make this work from a financial standpoint? But the big kicker in this whole thing: Is there going to be any horses? It can all make sense, and we can figure out how to make it all work in dollars and cents and make it work here on paper, but if there isn't any horses to run, you can't have a horse race."
Titus is passionate about his desire to continue racing at the Humboldt County Fair in Ferndale. He said millions of dollars flow into his community due to conducting the fair.
"I mean, if we lose horse racing, we can't afford to maintain the facility," he said of their fairgrounds. "We can't afford to employ the staff that we employ."
But Ferndale does not have adequate stabling for a horse population needed for a summer fair season, and if Pleasanton wraps up its stabling this spring, as expected, another track would need to replace it. Fresno and Sacramento might be options, but Sacramento's current obligations are to Standardbred racing.
Currently fewer than 500 horses are stabled at Pleasanton and those numbers would drop with horsemen facing an uncertain future in the region.
"I listened to the CARF (meeting) yesterday as an observer, and they mentioned that the population was down at 478, and of course, that's gonna go lower," said Bill Nader, president and CEO of the Thoroughbred Owners of California. "And I would think by the time we hit March that population will be probably 300 or below."
Nader does not see a schedule in which the fairs operate independently as viable. Unlike other states, California does not have gaming to bolster racetrack operations and purses.
Several former TOC board members have criticized the TOC for its stance on Northern California racing, leading to three resignations from Northern California directors in January 2024.
"The best way to put it is, when it comes to CARF and the fair CEOs, is the people that the horsemen and the owners trusted to do what was best for them, they backstabbed us," said owner Ron Katayama. "Yes, we had a lot of battles, but you never expect your own team to do that to you.
"It wasn't even we were battling with CARF, we were battling with the TOC, other organizations, the fairs. We were always told, 'We got you guys. We want racing to succeed.' So it was never a real worry, at least in my opinion, and then for CARF to do this..."
Financial Shortfalls
California racetracks and officials there are hopeful that historical horse racing gaming could present a lifeline if legal authorities in California consider the machines to be an extension of pari-mutuel wagering. The slot-like devices offer pari-mutuel pools and base winning combinations on previously run horse races. They have benefitted horse racing in states such as Kentucky and Virginia.
1/ST Racing closed Golden Gate Fields in Northern California last year, and Golden State Racing was formed to fill the void left by Golden Gate's closure, with CARF leading operations for a fall season. But handle and revenue fell short.
"It did a lot of damage," Nader said. "I think we all agreed as an industry that if they wanted the opportunity to try, they deserved that, but unfortunately, it didn't work out."
CARF, a joint-powers authority established by California law for conducting business for and with member fair associations, said in a release Tuesday that "it remains dedicated to serving all of our member fairs and their communities." According to CARF, from 1987-2024, $19.9 billion was wagered at California fairgrounds, and $963 million was generated for purses.
In mid-December, California stakeholders announced an agreement to consolidate Thoroughbred racing in the south through the winter and spring months, allowing a redirect of purses to the south. Key components of the plan included stabling and training at Pleasanton, along with vanning services for Northern California-based horses traveling to and from Santa Anita Park. Races designed for Northern California-level horses were also added to the Santa Anita condition book, with travel stipends offered to help support horsemen and horsewomen traveling to Santa Anita.
Northern California racing has featured many California-bred runners, making it a key component of the state's breeding program.
"Pleasanton stepped up," said Katayama. "They became the new hub. And not just the horse racing business, but any type of business, to give a business three months to succeed? Come on, that's not fair. It's very rare where a startup business succeeds in its first three months. Now, knowing what I know a little bit, they were never going to succeed because we were almost being sabotaged by our own people."
Though field size is up this meet at Santa Anita—a key metric that often leads to increased handle and support from horseplayers— handle has not corresponded. Because of the wildfires in Southern California that have cost lives and property and forced people to evacuate, it is a challenging year to compare horse racing financials. While keeping that in mind, the handle numbers show that despite the closing of Golden Gate there has not been a significant bump to handle at the Santa Anita winter-spring meet.
Average handle per race date through the first 17 days of the current Santa Anita meet is $2,941,789, down 1.6% compared to the first 18 dates of the 2023-24 meet. As the current meet lost a weekend of racing in January—including a Saturday date—a comparison that removes the corresponding Saturday date from last year still yields flat results as that adjusted 2023-24 average would be $2,947,975. (Saturday race dates typically generate the most handle of any day of the week.)
With the closing of Golden Gate, Santa Anita was hoping for significantly increased handle. That hasn't happened to date, but there is some hope as the average number of starters per race at the current meet, 7.76, is up 12% compared with last year.
Primarily due to a redirect in purses, "I would suspect that hopefully by the month of March we'll be able to announce purse increases at Santa Anita that will continue, not only through the Classic Meet but purse increases for the summer," Nader said. "And then I would suspect that purses will be increased at Del Mar as well as Los Alamitos as well as Santa Anita in the fall and then again at Santa Anita in the Classic Meet at the end of the year."
If the Northern California fairs do not race this year during the summer, tracks operating in the south during that period will benefit from a redirect, including California's prestigious summer season at Del Mar.
Future Uncertain
Titus does not view it as realistic to think Northern California horses and horsemen will simply move south for racing opportunities, though stall space is reportedly available at San Luis Rey Training Center and Los Alamitos Race Course. They could also head out of state.
"There's a bunch of livelihoods that are on the line here," Titus said. "I mean, what are those people gonna do? If these horses and these people had a spot in Santa Anita, they'd already be there. ... How many people's lives will be affected and touched if horse racing goes away in Northern California? I just think it would be astronomical, and I mean, I think if it goes, guess what? The south is next if the domino of the north falls. The south is right behind it because it's a broken business model in California.
"So I mean we all need to figure out how to keep this going and to fix the business model that's not working in California or we're gonna have no horse racing in California in short order."
He said fair operators in Northern California and other interests need to meet and discuss options. Nader said he was to be a part of a joint phone conversation with CARF Wednesday. A scheduled California Horse Racing Board meeting Feb. 20 could provide further clarification.
Titus said, "We need to get down to the nuts and bolts so we can start making some hard decisions and getting some definite plans in place so these horsemen know that they're gonna have a home or that they're gonna have a spot to go. ... And if we can't make it go, they need to know that also so that they can figure out what they need to do with their life, if they need to relocate or sell or whatever they got to do. We have to make a move sooner or later, and it has to be sooner than later."
Katayama said that at the time of last year's Breeders' Cup in Del Mar, he was "on top of the world." Katayama started a syndicate in Fresno, that brought in 35 new owners who he believes wouldn't have otherwise gotten into the game. That led to more than 100 new owners involved in the sport even going beyond Fresno, running at tracks in Southern California and Kentucky.
But now, he said CARF's decision has "nearly ended" his time as an owner.
"It's crazy how only a few months ago I felt like I was on top of the world, getting new people in the game, and now asking myself if I even want to do this anymore," he said.
