Since the turn of the century, eight "new shooters" to the Triple Crown have captured the Belmont Stakes (G1), the final leg of the series, with Arcangelo the most recent in 2023.
Like Sir Winston in 2019 and Tonalist five years earlier, Arcangelo used the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) as a launching pad into Belmont success. That same prep race could again send a horse or two into this year's Belmont Stakes, with winner Growth Equity and runner-up Talk to Me Jimmy floated as possibilities for the $2 million race June 6, though other races are also options.
Growth Equity, who overcame a wide trip to draw off by 2 lengths in the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan at Aqueduct Racetrack, would seem to have the most upside and potential to win over a classic distance. While his final time of1:50.25 was ordinary, it came over a tiring surface and produced a 93 Beyer Speed Figure and 98 Equibase Speed Figure. Those numbers are not far off the 95 Beyer and 100 ESF earned by Golden Tempo in his last-to-first Kentucky Derby (G1) triumph one week earlier at Churchill Downs.
Of course, Golden Tempo did it against the deepest and most talented 3-year-olds around, while the Peter Pan competition was merely consistent with its grade 3 status.
Modern history indicates that horses exiting the Run for the Roses have consistently held the strongest hand in the Belmont Stakes. No surprise, really.
The 1 1/4-mile Derby, more so than the Peter Pan, often reveals which sophomores possess the stamina and constitution required for the Belmont. Then the five weeks between the Derby and Belmont provide spacing that many modern trainers consider ideal.
This year, as in 2025 and 2024, the Belmont Stakes will again be contested at 1 1/4 miles, rather than its traditional 1 1/2-mile distance because of Belmont Park's ongoing reconstruction and the Belmont Stakes' temporary relocation to Saratoga Race Course.
It is also worth recalling that Peter Pan participants often benefited from already having raced over the Belmont Park surface in their immediate start before the Belmont Stakes. That has not been the case over the last few years, with the Peter Pan run at Aqueduct Racetrack amid the Belmont Park reconstruction.
Derby runners hold strength in numbers this year. More than a half dozen could return for the Belmont, led by Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable's Golden Tempo and Repole Stable and Robert and Lawana Low's Derby runner-up Renegade.
Both rallied relentlessly from well off a contested pace in the Derby, though Renegade endured particularly difficult circumstances early when he was repeatedly hammered by rivals during the opening 100 yards while breaking from the disadvantageous rail post.
He will attempt to rebound in the Belmont much the way Donegal Racing's and Repole Stable's Mo Donegal did in 2022 after overcoming a troubled Derby fifth from the inside post.
Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. teamed with Mo Donegal in both races, and they reunite this year in the Triple Crown with Renegade, who breezed a half-mile in :49.80 over Saratoga's Oklahoma training track May 21 while outworked by his stablemate, the talented maiden winner Powershift, a potential new shooter for Belmont.
Pletcher is a four-time Belmont winner, striking first with 2007 Kentucky Oaks (G1) heroine Rags to Riches before adding victories with Derby alumni Palace Malice in 2013, Tapwrit in 2017, and Mo Donegal in 2022.
Reflecting on Renegade and his effort in the Derby, Pletcher told track publicity, "He's a brave horse and a lot of horses might not have rebounded and run as well as he did considering all the bumping around he took early. I thought he ran a very courageous race. He was a little tired afterwards, which you would expect, but it seems like his energy level is back where we want it now."
As for Powershift, a fast winner of his third career start, Pletcher said, "It's kind of the trend of American racing now—lighter-raced horses running in bigger races."
Golden Tempo's trainer Cherie DeVaux will attempt to win the Belmont with her first starter in the race, just as she did in the Derby.
Though Renegade would seem the likely favorite, Golden Tempo enters as the division's headliner after delivering DeVaux a historic Derby triumph. He will attempt to complete the Derby-Belmont double, most recently achieved in 2025 by Godolphin's Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott.
One need only review the chart of this year's Derby to note how strongly the race favored late runners. The top-four finishers rallied from the rear half of the field, and the four closest to the early pace retreated to finish fifth or farther back.
Of the pace players, only So Happy remains an outside possibility for the Belmont as trainer Mark Glatt evaluates his trainee and upcoming racing options. As a son of 2015 champion male sprinter Runhappy, questions linger regarding his effectiveness at a classic distance, and having already been returned to Glatt's Southern California base, he would need another cross-country journey to travel to New York for the Belmont.
Two Derby runners who failed to seriously threaten at Churchill but still figure to be formidable Belmont contenders are Florida Derby (G1) winner Commandment, who finished seventh, and Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Emerging Market, who ran 10th. Commandment broke slowly and raced wide, while Emerging Market raced surprisingly close to the pace, tracking the leaders in fifth down the backstretch before flattening out late.
Trainer Chad Brown said Emerging Market lost a shoe in the Derby, and speculated it may have occurred when his 3-year-old jostled with other horses into the first turn. Racing without one of his four shoes may have compromised his effort; the colt exited the race with foot soreness that subsided after several days.
Emerging Market, the least experienced horse in the Derby field with only two prior starts, had every right to become discouraged under adverse circumstances. Let's not forget that he defeated Golden Tempo by a length when the pair finished first and third, respectively, in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots in March.
Among the Derby alumni, Emerging Market, Renegade, and Chief Wallabee all appear likely to benefit from training in recent weeks at Saratoga. Chief Wallabee trained particularly well in blinkers prior to the Derby, but found himself blocked in traffic for much of the race and intimidated in search of an opening in the early stretch. With a better trip, he appears poised for an improved performance.
