I first wrote about the importance of 12-second furlongs and the Kentucky Derby for BloodHorse back in 2004. Since then, my findings have been mostly confined to a subscription page at The Downey Profile. Let's take an updated look at this important Kentucky Derby handicapping angle.
READ: Consistent Splits Point to Derby Success
We begin the analysis with an examination of the Kentucky Derby from 2014 to the present. Of those 12 races, we are throwing out the 2020 Derby because it was run in September and the 2021 Derby because the winner, Medina Spirit, was disqualified for a medication infraction, leaving a sample of 10 races.
Eight of the 10 horses who crossed the finish line first in those runnings of the Kentucky Derby ran within one second of averaging :12 per furlong during at least four of the five calls of their final Derby prep. For example, Mage ran the following fractions when second in the 2023 Florida Derby (G1)—:24.37, :47.62, 1:11.37, 1:36.35, 1:49.54 (source: Equibase GPS chart).
Further, all but one of those eight finished the last 3 furlongs of their respective final preps in the well-known :38 or less; in fact, nine of the 10 did that. Only Mage exceeded the 38-second mark, but not by much. He finished in :38.17.
Applying these criteria, there are only five horses among the current Derby prospects that get credit for running "12s" at least four of the five calls in their final Derby prep and finishing in :38 or less.
Fulleffort, first in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), four of five 12s; :37.76 on an all-weather track.
Further Ado, first in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), four of five 12s; :37.53 geared down.
Golden Tempo, third in the Louisiana Derby (G2), four 12s of the first five calls going 1 3/16 miles; :37.19 from the 6 1/2 furlong marker to the finish line.
Incredibolt, first in the Virginia Derby, five of five 12s; :36.14 going one turn.
So Happy, first in the Santa Anita Derby, five of five 12s; :37.73.
This analysis is not bulletproof, of course. Two Kentucky Derby winners that did not make the cut for "12s at least four of five calls" hit the mark at three of the five calls. One of those two was American Pharoah (:23.27, :46.59, 1:10.74, 1:35.94, 1:48.52), who won the Arkansas Derby (G1) by 8 lengths.
A consolation prize in this analysis goes to Chip Honcho for his second-place finish to highly-regarded Paladin in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) (four of five 12s, :37.70). His next race was the Louisiana Derby, when his participation in a fast early pace preceded a fifth-place finish.
The lesson to be learned? Pick a horse with stamina. Pick a fast horse. But pick one that can reserve speed. A well-timed ride with patience and a cooperative horse is one of the keys to the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May.
We will follow up this piece with a look at Renegade, Commandment, Emerging Market, et al—horses that did not run 12s in their final preps, but have other things going for them.
