The May 18 renewal of the Victoria Mile (G1) for fillies and mares at Tokyo Racecourse, a Breeders' Cup Challenge Series event for the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1T), could be seen as a showdown between Ascoli Piceno and Stellenbosch.
The 4-year-old fillies' rivalry goes back to their 2-year-old season when Ascoli Piceno defeated Stellenbosch by a neck in the 2023 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1). Stellenbosch then turned the tables the following season in the Oka Sho (Japanese One Thousand Guineas, G1).
They have gone their separate ways since, both achieving substantial success.
Ascoli Piceno, a daughter of Daiwa Major, has compiled a record of five wins and two seconds from eight starts, the only misadventure being a 12th-place finish in Australia to wind up 2024. She started the 2025 season with a victory in the 1351 Turf Sprint (G2T) in Saudi Arabia in February, and trainer Yoichi Kuroiwa discussed the process of adjusting after that race.
"Of course, the fact that she was returning from overseas had been a concern, but she recovered as usual at the farm and everything went without a hitch. There was concern that having raced in a sprint she would be overly hyped and hard to settle, but I've seen no sign of that," Kuroiwa said.
"I think she is a strong horse and definitely poses a threat to others. However, she has followed a different path here than many of the others, so it'll be interesting to see how she measures up."
Christophe Lemaire rides, starting from gate 17, just one from the outside.
Stellenbosch, by Epiphaneia, has three wins, three seconds, and two thirds from nine starts. She tossed in a dud in her season opener, finishing 13th in the Osaka Hai (G1)—the only off-the-board finish of her career.
"Concerning her performance in the Osaka Hai, I can find nothing in her preparation or the race itself that could be seen as the problem. But her racing was off. I think she was in condition to run, but I really don't know," said trainer Sakae Kunieda.
"I think there are others that are more suited to the distance than she is, but she has done very well. If she gets a good trip, I think we have a chance."
Stellenbosch drew post 2 with Keita Tosaki named to ride.
Those looking beyond the obvious choices might focus on runners coming out of two key prep races—the Hanshin Himba Stakes (G2) and the Nakayama Himba Stakes (G3)
According to the Japan Racing Association, in the 19 previous runnings of the Victoria Mile, Hanshin Himba participants have accounted for six winners, seven seconds, and seven thirds. In the 2024 Victoria Mile, it was Ten Happy Rose, exiting a sixth-place finish in the Hanshin Himba, winning the Victoria Mile at odds of 208-1.
The Nakayama Himba Stakes has produced two winners, three seconds, and two thirds, by JRA reckoning. The 2024 runner-up, Fierce Pride, had finished ninth in the Nakayama Himba.
In this renewal, five runners come from the Hanshin race, including the winner, Safira. Two, including winner Shirankedo, exit the Nakayama heat.
Mile races at Tokyo Racecourse are run left-handed, starting at the top of the Tokyo backstretch with undulating ground facing the field into the turn. A slow climb into the stretch becomes a sharp hill from just before the 400-meter mark for some 100 meters, with the sprint home still facing the runners.
Worth noting: Ten Happy Rose, who is not in this year's Victoria Mile field, parlayed her 2024 victory to a fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1T) at odds of nearly 59-1.
