The Sunland Park Derby might sometimes be viewed as a byway rather than a highway on the road to the Kentucky Derby (G1). A look through the records shows, however, that since its inception in 2003, the New Mexico event has produced 12 Kentucky Derby starters, with Mine That Bird finishing fourth at Sunland Park before going on to capture the 2009 Kentucky Derby, and the 2015 victor, Firing Line, missing by just a length to American Pharoah in the 2015 Run for the Roses.
This year's Sunland Park Derby saw Pavlovian prevail by nose, edging the front-running favorite Express Kid on the wire. On speed figures, Pavlovian has a way to go before he would be considered a threat to the leading contenders for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, but he does have two things in his favor. One is that he appears to be improving fast, and the other is that he looks likely to be suited to additional distance.
That said, despite a pedigree and a stride that suggest distance will be his strong suite, Pavlovian actually debuted at 4 1/2 furlongs, finishing second in a Cal-bred maiden special weight at Santa Anita Park last May. He took a similar contest over 5 furlongs at next time of asking, and then ran a distant second behind Desert Gate in the Best Pal Stakes (G3). Off the board in the I'm Smokin Stakes, and runner-up in a state-bred allowance event, Pavlovian unseated his rider at the start of the Golden State Juvenile Stakes, then ended his first campaign with a fourth in another state-bred event, the King Glorious Stakes. This term, he prepped for the Sunland Park Derby with a third in the California Chrome Cal Cup Derby, his first start beyond a mile.
Although the Reddam Racing homebred doesn't have a fashionable pedigree, there are plenty of connections with classic distance stamina. Pavlovian's sire, Pavel , didn't start until the July of this 3-year-old season, but he rapidly proved to be a high-class performer with a 6 lengths tally in the Smarty Jones Stakes (G3) in his third career start. He followed that effort with a third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1). Remaining in training, Pavel ran 12 more times at 4 and 5. He won just one of those races, but that one was the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), which he took by 3 3/4 lengths, and he also finished second, albeit 12 lengths in arrears of Accelerate, in the Pacific Classic Stakes (G1). Standing at Ocean Breeze Ranch near Bonsall, Calif., the grey is responsible for 46 foals, 38 starters, and one other stakes winner, the 2023 Soviet Problem Stakes scorer Madison Rae, from three crops of 3-year-olds and up.
READ: Reddam Homebred Pavlovian Stirring Up Derby Hopes
Pavel is the best runner for his sire, the Giant's Causeway horse Creative Cause, who won the Norfolk Stakes (G1) and Best Pal Stakes (G2) in 2011, and the 2012 San Felipe Stakes (G2). He was also four times grade 1 placed, including a third in the Preakness Stakes (G1). He finished fifth in the 2012 Kentucky Derby, beaten just 3 lengths by I'll Have Another, who was raced by Reddam.
Pavlovian's dam, Mandy's Grace, was a winner over a mile and is the dam of three winners from her first four runners. She is a daughter of Bellamy Road, who started as the favorite for the 2005 Kentucky Derby, following a stunning 17 1/2 lengths victory in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1), which he took in a new track record. In the Derby, Bellamy Road closely tracked extremely demanding fractions, and briefly hit the front in the stretch, before fading to seventh. Bellamy Road came out of the race with what was described as a minor bone issue (a splint bone separated from the cannon bone). Despite that, he was back for the Travers Stakes (G1), where he finished a hard fought second to Flower Alley, in what proved to be his final outing.
The second dam of Pavlovian, Storm Cat's daughter, Magicalmysterycat, was a precocious juvenile capturing the Landaluce Stakes (G2), Schuylerville Stakes (G2), Valley Stream Stakes, and Cinderella Stakes at 2. Magicalmysterycat is a full sister to Burmilla, who was successful in the 2007 Honorable Miss Handicap (G2) and is the dam of graded winners Ragtime and Snowbell. Burmilla also is the third dam of last year's Selene Stakes (G3) scorer Serendipity, and a full sister to Lexington Girl, who was a winner at 2 in Japan, then repatriated to the United States where she produced stakes winners Whirlin Curlin and Lexington Street.
Magicalmysterycat is out of the durable Valid Appeal mare Nannerl, who won 10 of 38 starts, including the Distaff Handicap (G2), Bed o' Roses Handicap (G2), and Vagrancy Handicap (G3) all in 1992 and was twice grade 1 placed. Nannerl's dam, Alouette, is a half sister to Fact Finder, a top-level performer whose six graded stakes successes included the Matriarch Invitational Stakes (G1T) and Santa Barbara Handicap (G1T). The family goes back to the great foundation mare, Frizette, and arrived in the U.S. with the purchase of Frizette's daughter, Lespedeza, by Col. E. R. Bradley at the 1930 Newmarket Sales, the same year and sale at which Bradley purchased Lespedeza's fellow Marcel Boussac cull La Troienne.
A look at Pavlovian's five cross pedigree shows a 4x3 inbreeding to Storm Cat, through Giant's Causeway and Magicalmysterycat. Storm Cat is by a Northern Dancer son out of a Secretariat mare, as is another horse in the fourth generation of the pedigree, Chief's Crown, the paternal grandsire of Bellamy Road. That Storm Cat/Chief's Crown combination is found in 107 individual stakes winners, eight of them group or grade 1, most notably Calandagan, the highweight on the World's Best Racehorse ratings for 2025, and like Pavlovian, a Giant's Causeway/Chief's Crown cross.
