What started in late summer, continued in the fall and icy days of winter, and blossomed in the spring has come to an end. All of the preps, workouts, speculation and analysis on the Road to the Kentucky Derby are done. The 151st edition of the Kentucky Derby (G1) will be contested May 3 at Churchill Downs, once again putting the best 3-year-olds on display and beginning another quest for someone to become the 14th Triple Crown champion.
A full field of 20 is once again expected for what figures to be another challenging and perplexing handicapping riddle for bettors.
1. Citizen Bull (20-1): Last year's champion 2-year-old male looked like the Kentucky Derby favorite until he tired and finished fourth behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Trainer Bob Baffert felt the colt was a little short for the race and he has trained sharply of late. Has speed, which could offset drawing the rail, but a tardy start could leave him in deep waters. Odds are certainly higher than they figured to be a month ago.
JOCKEY: Martin Garcia; TRAINER: Bob Baffert
2. Neoequos (30-1): Chased the pace in the Florida Derby (G1) and settled for third. Given the speed horses around him, seems unlikely to handle 1 1/4 miles.
JOCKEY: Flavien Prat; TRAINER: Saffie Joseph Jr.
3. Final Gambit(30-1): Has never been on dirt, but has a pedigree for it. Made a big improvement to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks on an all-weather surface but seems likely to bounce in a spot this difficult.
JOCKEY: Luan Machado; TRAINER: Brad Cox
4. Rodriguez(12-1): Finally lived up to his potential in winning the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) in front-running fashion. Is by a Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner (Authentic ) so 1 1/4 miles should be within his scope. Key question is how contested will the pace be.
JOCKEY: Mike Smith; TRAINER: Bob Baffert
5. American Promise (30-1): He's trained by 89 years-young D. Wayne Lukas and seems to be getting better with each start. His romp in the Virginia Derby was fast enough to make him a factor here. Given how Lukas won the Preakness Stakes (G1) last year, deserves consideration for the exotics.
JOCKEY: Nik Juarez; TRAINER: D. Wayne Lukas
6. Admire Daytona (30-1): The "other" Japanese entrant won the United Arab Emirates Derby (G2) by a nose but before that was fourth behind the top starter from Japan, Luxor Cafe. If you like Luxor Cafe, given the big difference in odds, you have you give him at least a look.
JOCKEY: Christophe Lemaire; TRAINER: Yukihiro Kato
7. Luxor Cafe (15-1): He's won his last four starts, all in Japan, and was a 3-10 favorite in his last try. Given how Forever Young came within two noses of winning last year's run for the roses, he merits very strong consideration.
JOCKEY: João Moreira; TRAINER: Noriyuki Hori
8. Journalism (3-1): He's a very deserving morning-line favorite. Finished third in his debut and is unbeaten since then. Was pinned along the inside in the Santa Anita Derby and shuffled back, but showed courage and tenacity in coming outside and winning by a little less than a length. Received a great education in that start, which should pay off on the first Saturday in May.
JOCKEY: Umberto Rispoli; TRAINER: Michael McCarthy
9. Burnham Square(12-1): Rebounded from a fourth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) to close strongly and win the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) in the final stride. His jockey, Brian Hernandez Jr., won this race last year with a great rail ride, but he may need to weave through traffic here—which can be tricky in a field of 20.
JOCKEY: Brian Hernandez Jr.; TRAINER: Ian Wilkes
10. Grande (20-1): Lightly raced colt closed in the stretch to finish second in the Wood Memorial and earn a spot in the field. Hails from top connections and keeps getting better. Could pump some nice value into the exotics.
JOCKEY: John Velazquez; TRAINER: Todd Pletcher
11. Flying Mohawk (30-1): Another newcomer to dirt who was second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). Might like the distance but seems to be at the slow end of the scale.
JOCKEY: Joseph Ramos; TRAINER: D. Whitworth Beckman
12. East Avenue(20-1): He loves Kentucky. He's 2-for-3 in the Bluegrass State with a nose loss and 0-for-2 by a combined 36 lengths everywhere else. Since it's the Kentucky Derby, you have to consider him. But this promises to be the toughest test ever for his speed and stamina. Fell a few inches shy of going gate to wire in the Blue Grass Stakes and could be tough to catch if he is left alone on the lead.
JOCKEY: Manny Franco; TRAINER: Brendan Walsh
13. Publisher(30-1): He's a maiden. But not your typical maiden. He was a game second in the Arkansas Derby (G1), which paints him as a contender. Nevertheless, while he might land in the top four, it's hard to back a maiden to win in a spot like this. Even with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding him.
JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz Jr.; TRAINER: Steve Asmussen
14. Tiztastic(20-1): A winner of two of his first three starts, then lost four in a row before winning the Louisiana Derby (G2). A sign that he's on the upswing? Or a blip on the screen? We'll find out Saturday.
JOCKEY: Joel Rosario; TRAINER: Steve Asmussen
15.Render Judgment(30-1): Was fifth in the Blue Grass and though second in the Virginia Derby, he was beaten by nearly eight lengths. Not much to like here.
JOCKEY: Julien Leparoux; TRAINER: Ken McPeek
16. Coal Battle (30-1): Won four straight stakes before being stretched to a mile and an eighth and finishing third, seven lengths behind in the Arkansas Derby. Seems like this might be a tad too long for him.
JOCKEY: Juan Vargas; TRAINER: Lonnie Briley
17. Sandman (6-1): Came to the forefront with a sharp, rallying win in the Arkansas Derby. Has gotten better at the right time and if he can avoid traffic issues, should make his presence felt in the stretch.
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz; TRAINER: Mark Casse
18. Sovereignty(5-1): Highly consistent runner rallied wide for second in the Florida Derby after winning the Fountain of Youth. He's in top hands and seems ready for another big effort.
JOCKEY: Junior Alvarado; TRAINER: Bill Mott
19. Chunk of Gold (30-1): Could add some electricity to the exotics after seconds in the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star (G2) Stakes. Given his expected big price, he's not overmatched.
JOCKEY: Jareth Loveberry; TRAINER: Ethan West
20. Owen Almighty(30-1): Was in the Kentucky Derby, then out and then back in it. Breaking from post 20 after a sixth in the Blue Grass, an easier spot would have been optimal.
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano; TRAINER: Brian Lynch
21. Baeza(12-1, AE): An also-eligible with a chance if he draws in, he was second in the Santa Anita Derby. Is out of a dam who has produced a Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner, so he has a classic pedigree.
JOCKEY: Flavien Prat; TRAINER: John Shirreffs
THE PICK: Journalism
LIVE LONGSHOT: Grande
SUPERFECTA: 8-4-18-10
