The Road to the Kentucky Derby continues April 5—topped by the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), and UAE Derby (G2)—before the series makes a weekday stop April 8 for the postponed Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.
Initially scheduled for Saturday, the Blue Grass and the full programs for the first two days at Keeneland were pushed back three days owing to drenching rain expected in Kentucky from April 2-6. The state is under a flood watch, leading Gov. Andy Beshear to declare a state of emergency before the first wave of storms.
Those with lasting memories will recall that the Blue Grass was once a midweek fixture. Before 1989, when Keeneland moved it three weeks before the Kentucky Derby, it came nine days before the Run for the Roses.
Since 2015, the Blue Grass has been run four weeks ahead of the Derby, often with more than 30,000 fans in attendance, though that number figures to be much lower this year with the new date, one that offers less availability for weekday workers to attend.
If Lexington employers experience a rash of workers calling in sick Tuesday, or if University of Kentucky professors notice students not attending class, they should know the reason why: Keeneland is open on a customary dark day. After several days of hunkering down amid storms, Kentuckians might embrace attendance at Keeneland as excitedly as those going to Fat Tuesday racing at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots in New Orleans.
The Blue Grass rescheduling should also allow the Kentucky Derby (G1) prep to be run on a fast track. This scenario seemed impossible just days ago when the race was drawn for Saturday. Dry conditions are expected in Lexington Tuesday and also on the new Ashland Stakes (G1) day, April 7.
None of the seven Blue Grass entrants had been tested on a wet surface. So that removes some guesswork for horseplayers. A fast track also eliminates the wet-track excuse for participants heading into the May 3 Kentucky Derby.
The Blue Grass Stakes features three horses ranked in the Derby Dozen: Burnham Square, Chancer McPatrick, and River Thames—though all three are in the bottom half, respectively ranked in seventh, ninth, and 10th.
Two others in the field are existing graded stakes winners: Owen Almighty, who captured the March 8 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his latest, and East Avenue, winner of the Breeders' Futurity (G1) last year at Keeneland. East Avenue races with blinkers added to his equipment after two consecutive rear-half finishes, one of which came after a troubled start.
The Santa Anita Derby also lured a trio of Derby Dozen horses: second-ranked Journalism, third-ranked Citizen Bull, and sixth-ranked Barnes. It is a high-quality race involving the current favorite for the Kentucky Derby in Journalism, the reigning champion 2-year-old male of last year in Citizen Bull, and a past Kentucky Derby Future Wager favorite in Barnes, whose stock has fallen a bit since his loss to Journalism in the March 1 San Felipe Stakes (G2).
The Santa Anita Derby has just five entrants, meaning fewer Kentucky Derby qualifying points are up for grabs than initially scheduled. If the field remains intact with five horses, 75% of the planned points will be awarded. So, while the Blue Grass and Wood will distribute points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale to its top five finishers, points from the Santa Anita Derby will be allotted on a diminished 75-37.5-18.75-11.25-7.5 basis.
A scratch from the Santa Anita Derby, which would reduce the field to four, would drop the points available by 50%.
Beyond a means to promote the Derby, qualifying points are used by Churchill Downs as a preference system when the race overfills beyond its capacity field size of 20 horses. In each of the past two Kentucky Derby runnings, a threshold of about 40 points has been necessary to gain entry.
Citizen Bull (60 points) and Journalism (47.5) appear safely in the Derby, but Barnes (18.75) and the remaining two entrants, the promising maiden winner Baeza and his John Shirreffs-trained stablemate, the maiden Westwood, have zero apiece. The latter is not Triple Crown nominated and looks like filler in a short Santa Anita Derby field.
To surpass the 40-point estimated cutoff—which could vary this year depending on how many overseas horses travel and withdrawals from the list of potential starters—Barnes needs a top-two finish, and Baeza needs a victory. Point totals in the upper 30s would likely leave them needing defections in the lead-up to secure a starting spot in the gate for the first leg of the Triple Crown.
Of course, more is at stake besides Kentucky Derby points in the Blue Grass and Santa Anita Derby. The colts that are successful in these grade 1 races will instantly become more valuable as stud prospects.
A gelding by Liam's Map , Burnham Square would not experience a stallion boost if he triumphs in the Blue Grass.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who trains Citizen Bull and Barnes, also has another 3-year-old in action Saturday: the twice graded-placed Rodriguez, the favorite in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct Racetrack. With a field of 12, the Wood is the deepest domestic prep in the coming days.
Other contenders include Withers Stakes winner Captain Cook, the twice graded-placed Hill Road, and Grande—a winner of each of his two starts. All three have been a part of the Derby Dozen at times this year, with Grande the only one currently included at No. 12.
Longer than the three United States preps is the about 1 3/16-mile UAE Derby on the Dubai World Cup (G1) undercard Saturday at Meydan Racecourse. An American shipper, Gotham Stakes (G3) winner Flood Zone, stretches out there to race beyond a mile for the first time, matched against an international cast headed by Japan's Shin Forever, second in the Feb. 22 Saudi Derby (G3).
Churchill Downs moved the UAE Derby this year from the main Road to the Derby points series to the Europe-Middle East points series. The top two finishers of the UAE Derby who also wish to race in the Kentucky Derby figure to have the points to qualify.
