Comebacking dual grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick gets a second crack at a two-turn route when he returns in the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) March 8. The 1 1/16-mile race at Tampa Bay Downs for 3-year-olds offers Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 basis to its top five finishers.
Chancer McPatrick was one of the top juveniles of 2024 when he won his first three starts, including the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and Champagne Stakes (G1), both in New York around one turn. But the McKinzie colt disappointed in his season finale when racing two turns in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar. The late runner never offered a bid behind a slow pace and checked in sixth behind Citizen Bull, who with the victory would claim the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male.
The flow of that race may have contributed to his loss, or cross-country travel to race over an unfamiliar surface. Chancer McPatrick also had minor ankle surgery following the Breeders' Cup.
Dropped into a grade 3, the Chad Brown trainee is the undisputed class of the Tampa Bay Derby—though he is not the only promising 3-year-old in the seven-horse field. Breeders' Cup Juvenile show finisher Hill Road, now his stablemate, is in the lineup, as is stakes winner Owen Almighty and talented 3-year-olds Brodeur and Patch Adams.
Flavien Prat, who rode Flanagan Racing's Chancer McPatrick in all four of his starts last year, is aboard from post 2. The colt carries high weight of 124 pounds, spotting his rivals 4 pounds apiece.
Both Chancer McPatrick and Hill Road race with blinkers added.
Amo Racing USA's Hill Road, overlooked at 61-1 odds in the Juvenile after two starts in Ireland on turf, will be a much shorter price in the Tampa Bay Derby after garnering attention with his third-place finish in the Breeders' Cup. Nearly 10 lengths off the pace in last leaving the second turn, he blew by horses to be sixth in midstretch before edging Getaway Car for the show. He was the only closer to make up significant ground in the Juvenile. He finished 1 3/4 lengths ahead of Chancer McPatrick.
Following such a promising debut on dirt, his ownership decided to keep the son of Quality Road in America and turned him over to Brown. Adrian Murray previously trained him. Tyler Gaffalione rides Hill Road, who breaks outside Chancer McPatrick in post 3.
Both colts, unraced since the fall, might not be at peak fitness. Chancer McPatrick has breezed six times at Payson Park this winter, Hill Road five times.
Patch Adams, beaten as the 4-5 favorite in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park, also races a two-turn route for the second time. A 10 1/2-length maiden winner at Churchill Downs in the fall when he sped seven furlongs in 1:20.77, he regressed in the Southwest when he was slow into stride after a flat-footed break and finished evenly to grab fourth.
Also with Oaklawn running lines in his past performances is Brodeur, a winner of two straight there for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse after he finished sixth in his debut at Churchill Downs.
The rail-drawn Owen Almighty has the benefit of two starts over the track, the most recent of which was a runner-up finish behind John Hancock in the Feb. 8 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa. The latter is skipping the Tampa Bay Derby.
Insights FROM Thoro-Graph
- Owen Almighty ran a 4 1/2 in August as a 2-year-old, and his best this year is the same 4 1/2 last time out with no development to date. He needs to break through with a new top now to show he's more than just an early bloomer.
- Chancer McPatrick ran very strong 2-year-old figures (best figure a 3 1/4), but 3-year-olds are faster than 2-year-olds, and he will need to run a couple of points faster to be relevant in top races now. We will find out in his next two starts whether he has gone on. The weight he spots Saturday is a disadvantage that costs him almost a full point in the Thoro-Graph scale (5 pounds per point).
- Hill Road posted a good figure (5) for a 2-year-old in his only dirt start, and normal development would have him able to run faster now. He is the true wild card for this race and going forward.
- Patch Adams ran a huge figure (1 1/2) in his second start, faster than Citizen Bull earned to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The big bounce indicates the giant effort took something out of him; it's anyone's guess whether he gets back to his best now, a couple of months from now, or never. He is the fastest horse going in.
Thoro-Graph performance figures are calculated based on a race's time with adjustments for beaten lengths, track speed, ground loss, weight carried, and when necessary, wind. The lower the number, the better the race. Learn more at Thorograph.com.
Tampa Bay Downs, Saturday, March 8, 2025, Race 11Entries: Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Owen Almighty (KY) Irad Ortiz, Jr. 120 Brian A. Lynch 5/1 2 2Chancer McPatrick (KY) Flavien Prat 124 Chad C. Brown 8/5 3 3Hill Road (KY) Tyler Gaffalione 120 Chad C. Brown 4/1 4 4Brodeur (KY) Jose L. Ortiz 120 Mark E. Casse 15/1 5 5Filoso (KY) Dylan Davis 120 Chad Summers 15/1 6 6Naughty Rascal (FL) Samy Camacho 120 Gerald S. Bennett 20/1 7 7Patch Adams (KY) Florent Geroux 120 Brad H. Cox 2/1
