1. Fierceness
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable/Todd Pletcher
Pedigree: City of Light —Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty
Breeder: Repole Stable (KY)
Dominant in winning the Florida Derby by a record-setting 13 1/2 lengths, the reigning 2-year-old champion has maintained his edge in subsequent training, first at Palm Beach Downs and most recently at Churchill Downs, suggesting he may be able to avoid the bounce that hindered him following blowout wins. In his final breeze before the Derby, a half-mile April 26 in :48 4/5, he galloped out faster than most horses work. Clockers caught his next two eighths in :12 apiece under three-time Kentucky Derby (G1) winner John Velazquez. If he can avoid adversity in Saturday's race, the Derby is his for the taking.
WATCH: Flawless Final Breeze Instills Confidence in Fierceness
2. Sierra Leone
Owner/Trainer: Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg, Brook Smith, and Peter Brant/Chad Brown
Gun Runner —Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon
Breeder: Debby M. Oxley (KY)
Were it not for the brilliance of Fierceness, the buzz would be all about this colt leading up to the May 4 Run for the Roses. A $2.3 million purchase, he has met the high expectations that have surrounded him since his acquisition as a yearling. The addition of blinkers this year has resulted in improved focus and development, resulting in victories in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1), quite possibly the two best preps on the Kentucky Derby trail this year, at least top to bottom. He sits behind Fierceness due to lacking speed. Traffic or ground loss could impede his chances as a deep closer in a field of 20 horses.
3. Catching Freedom
Owner/Trainer: Albaugh Family Stables/Brad Cox
Constitution —Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile
Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)
Though he was outworked in his final Derby tuneup by Lexington Stakes (G3) winner Encino, an early scratch from the Kentucky Derby, it is important to bear in mind that Catching Freedom is a colt that shines in the afternoons, not the mornings. He has stepped up his game from a training perspective, but others are better in practice than him. But he puts on his game face when it is race day. Though the pace of the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2) was slow, he still managed to rally to victory, boding well for his chances over 1 1/4 miles in the Derby.
4. Mystik Dan
Owner/Trainer: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Valley View Farm/Kenny McPeek
Goldencents —Ma'am by Colonel John
Breeder: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby III (KY)
If it rains on Derby Day, creating an off track, his chances improve. He won the Southwest Stakes (G3) by eight lengths in the mud this year before running a still-good third on a fast track in the Arkansas Derby (G1) when hung wide. Drawn in post 3, he should be able to follow the rail-drawn Dornoch and jump ahead of deep-closing Sierra Leone in post 2, giving Hernandez a chance to save ground on Mystik Dan. Hernandez "knows the rail here about as good as anybody but (three-time Derby-winning jockey) Calvin Borel, and he's not playing," trainer Kenny McPeek said.
5. Just a Touch
Owner/Trainer: Qatar Racing, Resolute Racing, and Marc Detampel/Brad Cox
Justify —Touching Beauty, by Tapit
Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation (KY)
With only three starts he's light on experience but he has considerable upside for trainer Brad Cox. The Blue Grass runner-up is blessed with speed, and if he can improve upon his first route when second to Sierra Leone, he could threaten in the Derby. He made a favorable impression with a spirited gallop April 30 at Churchill Downs, which followed sharp breezes leading up to the race.
6. Forever Young
Owner/Trainer: Susumu Fujita/Yoshito Yahagi
Real Steel—Forever Darling, by Congrats
Breeder: Northern Racing (JPN)
Japanese and American horses are trained differently, making direct comparisons of workouts challenging. Quite often, Japanese horses will breeze a longer distance at a slow pace before quickening over the closing few furlongs. Even with that under consideration, this 5-for-5 Japanese horse dips a few spots in the rankings due to underwhelming gallops and breezes leading up to the Derby. His connections acknowledged he was a little flat after traveling to America from the Middle East, where he won the Saudi Derby (G3) and UAE Derby (G2), before showing renewed enthusiasm of late at Churchill Downs.
7. Resilience
Owner/Trainer: Emily Bushnell and Ric Waldman/Bill Mott
Into Mischief —Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike
Breeder: Pam and Martin Wygod (KY)
Though his speed figures are soft, and he is coming off a victory in one of the weaker final preps, the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), he has kept good company overall. When a maiden through his 2-year-old season, he raced against eventual stakes winners Locked, Stronghold, and Track Phantom, and this year he was fourth in an ultra-key Risen Star, beaten only 3 1/2 lengths by Sierra Leone. If he improved upon that effort, as it appeared he did when racing with blinkers in the Wood, he is not far away from threatening in the Derby.
8. Dornoch
Owner/Trainer: West Paces Racing, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding, Two Eight Racing, and Pine Racing Stables/Danny Gargan
Good Magic —Puca, by Big Brown
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
A mediocre Blue Grass performance in which he ran fourth and an unfavorable draw in the Derby, in which he starts from the inside post, leaves him in the bottom half of the 'Dozen rankings. Though the inside post in the continuous gate leaves him about 12 feet farther out than during the old days of the two-gate system, being drawn in post 1 in a massive field would appear a hindrance as it leaves jockey Luis Saez little choice but to send him early. The colt did not react well when rated in fourth inside in the Blue Grass before he was angled out for an even finish.
9. Stronghold
Owner/Trainer: Eric and Sharon Waller/Phil D'Amato
Ghostzapper —Spectator, by Jimmy Creed
Breeder: Eric and Sharon Waller (KY)
Not many stakes races produce three Kentucky Derby starters, and yet the maiden race he won at Churchill Downs last fall has done just that. In addition to Stronghold, runner-up Resilience, and third-place Track Phantom are in Saturday's first leg of the Triple Crown. Since that maiden win in October, Stronghold has been either first or second in four follow-up stakes starts. Having shown an affinity for Churchill Downs, he should run to his potential in the Derby. Others might just be faster.
10. Honor Marie
Owner/Trainer: Ribble Farms, Michael Eiserman, Earl Silver, Kenneth Fishbein, Dave Fishbein/Whit Beckman
Honor Code—Dame Marie, by Smart Strike
Breeder: Royce Pulliam (KY)
Though his bullet five-furlong breeze in :59 1/5 April 25 at Churchill Downs was one of the best of his career, his subsequent gallops and day-to-day training have not been on the same level as some of the key Derby contenders. Others are larger than him, and he carries his head a bit awkwardly. He gives the appearance of being the equine version of a basketball player with less-than-perfect shooting form who can still put the ball in the bucket. The Louisiana Derby runner-up has a bit of a home-track edge, having already won twice at Churchill Downs, including in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last fall.
11. Domestic Product
Owner/Trainer: Klaravich Stables/Chad Brown
Practical Joke —Goods and Services, by Paynter
Breeder: Klaravich Stables (KY)
Stepping up into grade 1 company after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) almost two months ago, he is a class question mark. He is also questionable as a top prospect in terms of speed figures, though slow-paced races this year have likely limited his ability to run quickly. His primary appeal is how he has trained leading up to the race, moving nicely in company with Sierra Leone in a joint breeze over the Churchill Downs main track April 27.
12. Just Steel
Owner/Trainer: BC Stables/D. Wayne Lukas
Justify —Irish Lights, by Fastnet Rock
Breeder: Summerhill Farm (KY)
His Arkansas Derby (G1) was encouraging—a two-length defeat when second to the Bob Baffert-trained Muth, who likely would have been the third or fourth favorite in this race had he been eligible to compete. (Muth runs next in the Preakness Stakes (G1) owing to Churchill Downs Inc.'s ban of trainer Baffert from competing at its tracks.) So this colt's competitive effort—being wide, no less—offers hope. Supporters have to be willing to accept Just Steel's ordinary 2-for-11 career record and 0-for-4 mark at age 3, however.
