Three weeks ago at Pimlico Race Course in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness Stakes (G1), National Treasure took charge early under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez and after undemanding fractions of :23.95, :48.95, and 1:13.49, proved uncatchable. He turned aside a stretch bid from Blazing Sevens by a head, completing the distance in 1:55.12, with Kentucky Derby winner (G1) winner Mage third.
The race was in contrast to a hot-paced Kentucky Derby, where the flow of the 1 1/4-mile first leg of the Triple Crown favored closers, and Mage was victorious in rallying from 16th place after a half-mile, more than 13 lengths off the leader.
Now comes the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes (G1), the final leg of the Triple Crown—scheduled for June 10, provided poor air quality from Canadian wildfire smoke does not cause its postponement.
The Belmont pace makeup appears more in line with the Preakness than the Derby. Once again, National Treasure appears the one to catch, with a moderate to slow tempo anticipated.
Of the nine entrants, only he and 30-1 longshot Il Miracolo have been on the lead at any stage in their careers, with the latter only doing so in a maiden and an allowance race. In five stakes races, Il Miracolo has never raced in fifth or better at any point of call, including at the finish.
This leaves National Treasure as the established speed, and seemingly ready to dictate terms, provided he breaks alertly from post 4. Velazquez is again aboard for trainer Bob Baffert, whose runners often are asked to utilize their natural speed.
Understanding of the makeup of the Belmont field, or due to the draw, the connections of other horses may opt to try to have their horses stay close early.
Trainer Brad Cox, who runs Tapit Shoes, Angel of Empire, and Hit Show in Saturday's race, said June 6 of Tapit Shoes having an inside draw: "We're going to send him out of there running. We like all of them to break and go forward—not all of them do that—but that's the intent."
The 3-year-old colt raced in the rear half of the pack in his first three starts before showing more positional speed to lay closer in his last two. He was about a length off a lively pace when advancing from fourth to finish second in the Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn Park April 22. He was caught in the closing strides by late-running Belmont Stakes participant Red Route One.
Other runners, such as Hit Show and Forte, have the pace figures to indicate they seemingly could stay within a few lengths of the pacesetter, though they typically stalk or rally from midpack. Hit Show was within range of the Kentucky Derby's lively splits, and Forte , scratched from the May 6 Derby, could be fresh in his first start in 10 weeks.
Since the turn of the century, just three horses have won the Belmont wire-to-wire: Da' Tara (2008), and Triple Crown winners American Pharaoh (2015) and Justify (2018), though many early leaders lasted for minor awards.
Last year, a widely perceived speed advantage contributed to We the People starting as the second betting favorite. Though the frontrunner coasted through splits of :48.49, 1:13.23, and 1:37.74, he could not last in the Belmont, known as "The Test of The Champion," against such high-class competition. He had no answer when favored Mo Donegal came to him in the stretch and he weakened to fourth behind Mo Donegal, Nest, and Skippylongstocking. The race was clocked in 2:28.28.
This year's morning-line favorite is Forte at 5-2, followed by slow-starting Tapit Trice at 3-1, and Angel of Empire, adding blinkers, listed at 7-2. National Treasure, having defeated a field of lesser classic talent in the Preakness aside from quick-returning Mage, is 5-1.
