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Graded Stakes Winners Fluctuate by Sire's Crop Year

Graded Stakes Winners Fluctuate by Sire's Crop Year

Following on from the earlier post on the racing class of the dam, we decided to take a look at the fluctuation in graded/group stakes winners over the first eight crops of a stallion's career.

We took some 50 proven stallions and extracted out the number of graded stakes winners sired in each of their first eight crops. As you will note, they are not a random group of stallions but rather stallions that were in the top 10 of their season's first-crop sires list and managed to maintain themselves in the top 20 on the third-crop list. The data is from Northern Hemisphere crops only. Here is the raw data.

Sire Crop 1 Crop 2 Crop 3 Crop 4 Crop 5 Crop 6 Crop 7 Crop 8 SUM
Alphabet Soup 6 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 11
Arch 3 2 1 2 2 0 3 1 14
Awesome Again 6 3 4 4 1 2 3 2 25
Broken Vow 2 3 2 2 4 1 2 2 18
City Zip 1 2 1 3 4 0 4 0 15
Distorted Humor 5 3 2 3 7 2 2 6 30
Dixie Union 2 3 3 2 5 2 1 3 21
E Dubai 4 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 10
El Corredor 3 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 8
Elusive Quality 3 5 0 0 1 3 3 2 17
Empire Maker 5 5 3 3 8 2 1 0 27
Exchange Rate 2 1 1 2 0 0 2 1 9
Flatter 2 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 7
Forest Wildcat 3 2 3 0 1 3 1 4 17
Forestry 6 2 2 0 2 0 1 2 15
Freud 0 1 1 1 3 1 0 0 7
Fusaichi Pegasus 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 10
Giant's Causeway 9 13 6 3 9 9 7 7 63
Grand Slam 4 3 0 0 4 2 1 1 15
Harlan's Holiday 4 3 2 2 1 5 4 0 21
Hennessy 4 4 3 6 1 5 1 0 24
Include 2 0 0 1 5 1 0 0 9
Indian Charlie 1 3 0 0 1 3 1 2 11
Johannesburg 10 3 3 4 0 0 1 1 22
Langfuhr 1 4 3 2 3 1 1 1 16
Lemon Drop Kid 2 5 3 3 2 2 4 3 24
Macho Uno 3 1 0 1 4 2 0 0 11
Malibu Moon 1 2 1 1 6 3 3 1 18
Maria's Mon 3 1 0 0 4 5 3 5 21
Mineshaft 3 1 3 3 0 2 1 0 13
Mizzen Mast 2 3 1 0 2 0 2 0 10
More Than Ready 1 2 0 3 4 2 5 3 20
Northern Afleet 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 5 10
Officer 2 1 1 0 3 0 0 0 7
Orientate 4 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 7
Point Given 2 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 7
Posse 3 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 6
Proud Citizen 3 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 8
Pulpit 2 3 5 2 4 3 2 4 25
Sky Mesa 2 5 1 2 0 1 1 0 12
Smart Strike 3 4 5 3 2 3 8 2 30
Smoke Glacken 1 1 4 1 0 1 2 2 12
Street Cry 10 6 6 0 4 6 0 2 34
Successful Appeal 3 0 3 1 2 0 3 1 13
Tale of the Cat 1 8 0 1 2 3 3 2 20
Tiznow 2 7 5 1 8 0 2 2 27
Touch Gold 4 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 10
Unbridled's Song 4 1 1 1 7 3 7 3 27
War Chant 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 12
Yes It's True 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 12
Sum 159 138 93 72 128 86 90 72 838
Average 3.18 2.76 1.86 1.44 2.56 1.72 1.80 1.44 16.76
2.10

On average these stallions sired 16.76 graded stakes winners over the eight crops, which averages out at 2.10 per crop. What is interesting is that crops one, two, and five had significantly more graded stakes winners than the average across all years. The fifth crop is the most interesting in that the foals out of this crop are put in foal while the stallion is having his first runners in their classic year. This indicates that graded stakes winner production is significantly affected by the number and quality of mares bred.

As the fifth crop doesn't see a sale ring until the stallion's oldest are 5-year-olds, there may be an interesting opportunity for yearling buyers to capitalize on this "bounce" that stallions get, especially as their third and fourth crops may prove less than stellar on the racetrack, thus impacting their overall commercial appeal.

Sires this year with their fifth crops hitting the sale ring in North America include Street Sense (TrueNicks), Hard Spun (TrueNicks), Discreet Cat (TrueNicks), Scat Daddy (TrueNicks), and English Channel (TrueNicks).