Depending on the pace of the race, running out the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby is as much about class as it is about pedigree. As they approach the final furlong marker it is invariably a time where each of the horses start to wonder who their parents are, and if they deserve to find the line in the run to the wire.
Alan Porter has noted on occasions in this blog that on the TrueNicks Enhanced Report, the difference between the average winning distance and the average distance raced by horses bred on the cross can often give a pointer to the ability for the horse to "outrun its pedigree" in terms of distance. When a horse has a AWD greater than its ADR for horses bred on the cross, they generally run further than their pedigree suggests, but that must be kept in context of the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby and the average winning distances that the cross is generating.
Last year our own Ian Tapp tipped the stone cold trifecta in the comments section with his note "Top 3 that will love the distance: Revolutionary, Golden Soul, Orb" in our review of the pedigrees for the 139th Kentucky Derby. This year he is under pressure do do the same!
Here are the complimentary TrueNicks Enhanced Reports for each entrant in post position order. Click on their name or rating to get their Enhanced Report.
| PP | Name | M/L | Sire Progeny AWD |
Broodmare Sire Progeny AWD |
Cross AWD |
Cross ADR |
AWD>ADR |
TrueNicks |
| 1 |
Vicar's in Trouble
|
20-1 | 6.64 f | 6.80 f |
7.03 f |
6.98 f |
YES |
A++ |
| 2 |
Harry's Holiday
|
50-1 | 7.07 f |
6.38 f |
6.56 f |
7.28 f |
|
A++
|
| 3 | Uncle Sigh | 30-1 | 6.61 f |
7.07f | 6.99 f |
6.83 f |
YES |
A++
|
| 4 | Danza | 8-1 | 6.50 f |
6.91 f |
7.53 f |
7.48 f |
YES |
A |
| 5 |
California Chrome
|
5/2 | 6.44 f |
6.48 f |
6.57 f |
6.61 f |
|
A |
| 6 | Samraat | 15-1 | 6.74 f |
6.44 f |
7.21 f |
7.13 f |
YES |
A++ |
| 7 |
We Miss Artie
|
50-1 | 6.85 f |
7.07 f |
6.89 f |
7.09 f |
|
B+ |
| 8 |
General a Rod
|
15-1 | 6.56 f |
7.62 f |
7.51 f |
7.36 f |
YES |
A++ |
| 9 | Vinceremos | 30-1 | 7.10 f |
6.54 f |
8.09 f |
8.00 f |
YES |
A++ |
| 10 |
Wildcat Red
|
15-1 | 6..50 f |
7.19 f |
6.46 f |
6.60 f |
|
B+
|
| 12 | Dance With Fate | 20-1 | 6.43 f |
6.73 f |
6.98 f |
7.03 f |
|
D
|
| 13 | Chitu | 20-1 | 6.30 f |
7.48 f |
7.71 f |
7.92 f |
|
C
|
| 14 |
Medal Count
|
20-1 | 9.13 f |
6.80 f |
8.43 f |
9.25 f |
|
A++
|
| 15 | Tapiture | 8-1 | 7.36 f |
6.49 f |
6.74 f |
6.78 f |
|
A++
|
| 16 |
Intense Holiday
|
8-1 | 7.07 f |
6.80 f |
7.66 f |
7.04 f |
YES |
A++
|
| 17 |
Commanding Curve
|
50-1 | 6.98 f |
6.48 f |
7.07 f |
7.02 f |
YES |
B
|
| 18 |
Candy Boy
|
15-1 | 6.89 f |
6.17 f |
6.75 f |
6.86 f |
|
A++
|
| 19 |
Ride On Curlin
|
15-1 | 7.57 f |
7.03 f |
7.03 f |
7.35 f |
|
A++
|
| 20 |
Wicked Strong
|
6-1 | 6.96 f |
6.73 f |
8.27 f |
7.92 f |
YES |
A++
|
| 21 |
Pablo Del Monte
|
50-1 | 8.54 f |
5.5 f |
6.10 f |
6.18 f |
|
A+ |
Taking the horses bred on crosses with an AWD greater than 7.5 furlongs and an AWD greater than the ADR, we are left with five colts: Danza, General A Rod, Vinceremos, Intense Holiday, and Wicked Strong. Probably a good value trifecta box to leave out the favorite, California Chrome, on the chance that he's the next Mister Frisky or gets a bad trip.
So who do you like (and why) for this 140th Run for the Roses?
