Decile Analysis of OBS March Shows Depth Throughout

The success of the Ocala Breeders' Sales March 2-Year-Olds Sale actually runs deeper than the initial metrics indicated following the March 10-12 auction. Following the first 2-year-olds in training of the year, OBS celebrated a record-tying seven purchases of $1 million or more and a record March gross of $72,456,500 from 451 sold, as of March 16. Buyers commented throughout the sale how difficult it had been to acquire the horses on their short lists because stiff competition pushed prices outside their pre-sale budgets. Most had to adjust and stretch to get the horses they really wanted. A decile analysis of this sale by BloodHorse MarketWatch shows just how much buyers had to adjust. Subdividing a sale's results into 10% increments presents a good picture of what is happening within a sale in the upper, middle, and lower segments of the market. Throughout this century, the common pattern across most North American auctions has been one of polarization—growth in the top 20% and losses largely through the lower-middle to lower end of a market. The OBS March sale of 2025 reflected this general polarization with five of 10 deciles showing year-over-year growth in average price and four of those being the top four deciles. The lowest decile that year saw a 5.2% uptick because the bottom price eked up from $1,000 to $1,500. This year, however, no segment of the market lost ground compared with 2025. The average price for the top decile rose 2.2%, which is not a big change but still a notable increase considering the top price was $1 million less than in 2025. Last year, Eddie Woods sold the Gun Runner son and future grade 1 winner Brant for an OBS March record of $3 million. So even with a $1 million difference at the very top, the average still rose for this year's top decile because the lowest price in the decile's price range increased to $400,000 from $385,000 a year ago. The largest increase in average price occurred in the sixth decile, where horses sold for $65,000 to $85,000. The average jumped 24.5% to $72,656, up from $58,349 for this decile at last year's sale. "The middle was very healthy. What I had mostly at this sale were middle-of-the-road horses and they paid us well," said Randy Miles, who was among the top 12 consignors by average at the OBS March sale. "If you tried to buy yearlings last year, you saw it was a 25% increase and that is across-the-board. The upper and the middle horses probably went for more. You have to pay for a good horse." The fifth through the 10th deciles all showed double-digit percent increases in average price compared with the 2025 March sale. Further evidence of stronger demand was seen with a marked increase in post-sale transactions, which are horses sold privately after going through the auction ring and not meeting their reserve price. Last year, OBS reported 68 post-sale transactions that averaged $55,234. This year, the sale company reported 77 post-sale transactions that averaged $65,649. "Every time I walked into the office to give a reserve, there were people doing post-sale after post-sale," Miles said. "We could have sold every horse we took over there. It is up to the owners whether they want to sell and sometimes they were happy to keep the horse." The owners of Hip 219 in Miles' consignment were among those happy to bring their horse back home. The colt by Tiz the Law out of the stakes-placed Cozzene mare Oblivious worked in :10 2/5 during the under-tack show and ended up being a $200,000 buy-back. "He was one of my favorite horses on the farm, and my owners felt he was a much better horse than that price indicated," Miles said. "Instantly, I had someone on the phone asking if we'd sold him, and I had to tell them we were keeping him. But, we had the opportunity to sell him if we wanted to. That is a sign of a strong market." After seeing the results for March, Miles said he is quite optimistic about the OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale being held April 14-17. "I think April is going to be an awesome sale, and I'm encouraged to see a lot of new partnerships that are getting going. They are fun because you are bringing new money into the game," he said. "I am a big supporter of those partnerships because it helps them split the training bills, they have fun, and stay in the game longer."