Road to Kentucky Derby Field Size Rule Impacts Baeza

The way the biggest rules tweak to this year's Road to the Kentucky Derby series has played out on the track suggests another change should be in order for 2026. As of today this tweak has resulted in Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Baeza needing help to make the Kentucky Derby (G1) field. That fact alone suggests another change to the rules is in order. Ahead of this year's series, rules were changed to require qualifying points races to have at least six starters to award the full amount of points assigned. Races that fell short of that mark would see a reduction of qualifying points awarded. That change has most impacted Baeza. Campaigned by C R K Stable and Grandview Equine, Baeza entered the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby off a maiden victory and delivered a runner-up finish in which he defeated champion 2-year-old male Citizen Bull and grade 2 winner Barnes. The lone horse to finish in front of him, Journalism, figures to be the favorite in this year's Kentucky Derby off that Santa Anita Derby win. In its storied history, the Santa Anita Derby has seen 10 of its winners and 19 of its starters go on to claim Kentucky Derby glory. While this year's race only had five starters, it offered quality. Journalism and Citizen Bull entered the gates as the top two horses in that week's National Thoroughbred Racing Association 3-year-old poll. Lee Searing, who campaigns horses with wife Susan under the C R K Stable banner, said trainer John Shirreffs will prepare Baeza as if he is going to start in the Derby. If a spot does not open up for the son of McKinzie, they'll shift their focus to the Preakness Stakes (G1). Searing, who two years ago saw his third-place Santa Anita Derby finisher Skinner qualify for the Kentucky Derby before being scratched one day before the classic, now finds himself in the odd position of hoping some horses ahead of Baeza defect from this year's field. Searing prefers to keep things positive, noting that he and Susan have had so much fun in racing. But when asked about how this played out, he notes that he doesn't understand why the change was made. "Why would you fool with a point system that they put in place years ago? They changed it, and it affects good horses like my horse. My horse is not a 50-1 or 100-1 shot. If he makes the field, he's probably about a 10-1 shot. "He should obviously be in the race, because people want to see the best horses. When you run like my horse did against the (Kentucky Derby) favorite, he established himself as one of the best horses for the Derby. It's sad that we're not yet in, but we're hopeful we get in." Before the reduction in points because of field size, the Santa Anita Derby was scheduled to award 50 points to the runner-up with a full assignment of 100 to the winner, 25 to third, 15 to fourth, and 10 to fifth. Instead, the race awarded 75 points to Journalism, who is safely in the Kentucky Derby field, and 37.5 to Baeza. If Baeza had received the full 50 points, he would be in a three-way tie for 16th and safely in the field, which at this point is expected to include a pair of international runners in two starting spots. Instead, his connections are playing the waiting game. "We think we're number 22 on the list," Searing said, noting that you don't always know what horses ahead of you actually will be entered. "We'll be ready (if he makes the field)." Without some defections, a horse most people would view as one of the 20 best 3-year-olds in training will not make the field. Baeza has improved his Equibase Speed Figure in each of his four races and would likely be middle of the pack in terms of odds if he were to start. He is the 10th-ranked 3-year-old on the current NTRA poll. In short, he's the type of horse fans want to see run. Some history for Baeza's broodmare is also on the line this classic season. Baeza is out of Puca, who also produced 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and last year's Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Dornoch. Robert Clay's Grandview Equine is the breeder of all three runners. The rule added this year says that in the event a Championship Series race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is run with a five-horse field, only 75% of the points will be proportionally awarded. A Championship Series race field with four or fewer horses will be proportionally awarded 50% of the total points. Considering how this year's points race has played out, I think it would make sense to eliminate the field size requirement or, if it's kept in place, simply reduce the number of finishing positions that receive any points. Award the full points to the top finishers, but none to fifth, or maybe none to fourth and fifth.