Three Heating Up: American Promise Moves up the Ranks

1. American Promise American Promise made little impact in his first two starts against stakes competition but had posted good Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures for his maiden win Dec. 29 at Oaklawn Park in his sixth career start. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas likened American Promise to a gangly kid growing into his body in explaining his breakout performance in the Virginia Derby March 15 at Colonial Downs. The Justify colt pressed grade 1-placed stakes winner Getaway Car early in the one-turn, 1 1/8-mile race, took command on the turn, and surged to a 7 3/4-length romp in a track record time of 1:46.41. The main track was playing very fast on Virginia Derby day, but American Promise crushed the previous record of 1:47.36 set by McCain Aug. 18, 2021, and earned a 101 Equibase Speed Figure and 95 Beyer Speed Figure. This is a well-bred colt (half brother to graded stakes winner Hoosier Philly) with significant potential, but I must admit the inconsistency concerns me. He has two wins, one second, and one third in nine starts. His first stakes win was an attention grabber, no doubt, but you can't completely dismiss unplaced finishes in both the Southwest Stakes (G3) and Risen Star Stakes (G2) and he did not finish especially well in the Virginia Derby with a final three-eighths of a mile in :38.02. 2. Owen Almighty Owen Almighty's case for the heating up section is almost the polar opposite of American Promise. While the latter ran very fast early and slowed considerably late, Owen Almighty set an easy pace in the March 8 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) through three-quarters of a mile in 1:12.54 and finished exceptionally fast for a 1 1/16-mile dirt race, completing the final quarter-mile in :23.51 and the final furlong in :11.67. He earned a new career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure and a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, five points better than his previous best. Unlike American Promise, Owen Almighty has never finished worse than second in six starts—he finished first but was disqualified and placed fifth for interference in the Pasco Stakes in January—and consistency is his calling card. Trainer Brian Lynch expressed concerns about distance limitations for the bay colt by 2004 champion sprinter Speightstown before the Tampa Bay Derby and reiterated after Owen Almighty's grade 3 win that he's skeptical he can stretch out to 1 1/4 miles for the Kentucky Derby (G1). Speightstown has proved capable of siring quality two-turn racehorses and Owen Almighty's dam was a winner at 1 1/16 miles who ran second in the 2020 Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), but Lynch knows his colt better than anyone and I'm inclined to trust his judgement. That said, I think Owen Almighty is one of the five best dirt 3-year-olds in training right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he can carry his speed a bit farther and I think he's going to win some big races this year. If he goes on to the Kentucky Derby he deserves respect, and the Derby indeed appears to be his target as Hunter Rankin, president of owner Flying Dutchmen, said on the latest BloodHorse Monday podcast that the colt would probably make one more start in a Derby points race before heading to Louisville, Ky. 3. Lion of Justice There was a clear delineation between the top two and the options for my third selection for the heating up section, so I'll venture out on a limb here and hype up maiden winner Lion of Justice. The dark bay or brown colt by leading sire Into Mischief set a blistering pace through a half-mile in :45.34 in the fifth race March 15 at Colonial Downs—again, I know the track was exceptionally fast on Virginia Derby day—and finished with a final quarter-mile in :24.64 and a final eighth in :12.42. His winning time of 1:33.87 was just a shade off the track record of 1:33.70 set by Continuation Aug. 16, 2021. Lion of Justice earned a 92 Equibase Speed Figure and a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, the latter a very good number for a career debut. It's probably way too much to ask of this Brad Cox-trained 3-year-old to come back in a couple of weeks and win a Kentucky Derby prep race in his second start and move on to the Run for the Roses, but he could be a player on the Triple Crown trail (perhaps the Preakness Stakes, G1) if he handles a step up to stakes competition in his next start. Lion of Justice has a terrific two-turn pedigree by Into Mischief out of the Medaglia d'Oro mare Ever So Clever, winner of the 1 1/16-mile Fantasy Stakes (G3) in 2017, and he's got plenty of speed and natural ability. Add this one to your Equibase Virtual Stable.