American Promise Looks Well Suited for Classic Distance

In an appealing piece of symmetry, the Virginia Derby—the newest race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby—went to a horse conditioned by a trainer who is surely the oldest on the current Kentucky Derby (G1) trail, that being 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas, who has sent out four Derby winners, the first, Winning Colors, back in 1988. A $750,000 yearling, American Promise has been campaigned in typical Lukas fashion. Having debuted at Saratoga Race Course July 27, the chestnut was making his sixth start of the year when he gained his first win in an 1 1/16-mile Oaklawn Park maiden special weight Dec. 29. Jumped into graded stakes company for his first two starts this term, American Promise finished sixth—demoted to seventh—in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and fifth, beaten 13 lengths, in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). At Colonial Downs, American Promise was away quickly to engage the speedy Getaway Car, and after gaining the ascendency in that battle, rolled on to hit the wire 7 3/4 lengths to the good of Render Judgement, who coincidentally had beaten American Promise into second in a Churchill Downs maiden back in October. Over an extremely quick surface, American Promise not only set a track record for 1 1/8 miles—a distance that's not that frequently contested at Colonial—but also clicked through a mile in 1:33.02, a faster time than the official track record for that distance. American Promise is one of four stakes winner to emerge so far from the third Northern Hemisphere crop of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, who was represented by 15 stakes winners in his first crop and 14 in his second. He already has a Derby winner to his name in last year's Epsom Derby (G1) hero, City of Troy—co-high weight on the Longines World's Best Racehorse rankings for 2024—and he's additionally responsible for 2023 champion 2-year-old fillies on two continents in Just F Y I and Opera Singer, 2023 high-weighted French 2-year-old Ramatuelle, and other group and grade 1 winners Hard to Justify, Aspen Grove, and Arabian Lion. American Promise is a half brother to another Storm Cat-line standout in the shape of Into Mischief's daughter Hoosier Philly, successful five times in black-type company, most notably when taking the 2022 Golden Rod Stakes (G2). Their dam, the Tapit mare Tapella, was a maiden special weight and allowance winner at Aqueduct Racetrack and ran fourth in an eight-horse field for the 2017 Comely Stakes (G3) on her only try against black-type company. A half sister to the 2019 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) second, Ulele, Tapella is out of Princess Arabella, winner of the 2012 Sunland Park Oaks. The third dam, Tortuga Lady, won over six furlongs, but she is a daughter of the Lukas-trained 1995 Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch, and a full sister to Invisible Ink, a horse who never captured a black-type race, but did run second to Monarchos in the 2001 Kentucky Derby. Conquistress, the dam of Tortuga Lady and Invisible Ink, is a half sister to the good European miler African Joy, but she has a stout United States classic pedigree, as she is by 1982 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner, Conquistador Cielo, and her granddam is a half sister to Quadrangle, who captured the 1964 Belmont Stakes, with none other than the Triple Crown-seeking Northern Dancer back in third. In addition to Quadrangle, Conquistress' third dam, Tap Day, also produced the Native Dancer daughter Secret Step, a champion sprinter in England, and she's ancestress of more than 70 other stakes winners, also including 2009 champion 2-year-old filly She Be Wild, and 2002 Prioress Stakes (G1) victress Carson Hollow. Given this stamina-laden background, and that he is by a Triple Crown winner out of a mare by a stallion who has sired four Belmont Stakes winners, the Kentucky Derby distance should hold no fears for American Promise should he prove good enough. American Promise follows the 2022 Nashua Stakes (G3) winner Champions Dream and grade 1-placed Just a Touch as one of three stakes horses from 15 starters by Justify out of mares by Tapit. The cross gives a 4x3 duplication of Pulpit, and behind that the sisters Yarn (granddam of Justify's grandsire Johannesburg) and Preach (dam of Pulpit) and also six crosses of Nijinsky II (sire of the second dam of Yarn and Preach) and two of the rather similarly bred Storm Bird. This is also woven into some very complex patterns. Scat Daddy, the sire of Justify is a Storm Bird/Mr. Prospector cross, and his dam is a Mr. Prospector/Nijinsky II cross, as are Yarn and Preach, and Tap Your Heels (dam of Tapit), while Thunder Gulch, the sire of Tortuga Lady, is a Mr. Prospector/Storm Bird cross. In addition, Pulpit is an A.P. Indy/Mr. Prospector cross, and Any Given Saturday, the sire of the granddam of American Promise is a Mr. Prospector/A.P. Indy cross. Finally when we compare the pedigree of Tapit with that of Justify's dam, Stage Magic, we find both have Pulpit, both have inbreeding to Nijnsky II, and while Tapit has Moon Glitter as his third dam, Stage Magic has Moon Glitter's brother, Relaunch (Tapit and Relaunch already appear in more than 50 stakes winners, including 2020 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tiz the Law and dual champion Unique Bella).