In Crafting Ratings System, Equibase Aims for Consensus

Equibase aims to cast a wide net as it crafts a ratings system that will serve as an option for racing secretaries in setting future racing conditions while perhaps providing an alternative to claiming races. With an eye toward simplifying some current race conditions while providing new race options to fit a track's horse population, Equibase is moving toward creating a ratings system similar to those used overseas. Project leaders believe a successful effort could provide a tool that would allow increased starts from horses in training. "You hear about horses who have run out of places to run," said project leader Chance Moquett. "Maybe it's a filly who is out of conditions but because she's worth six figures as a broodmare, the connections don't want to run her in a $50,000 claiming race." Equibase is just getting started on this project, and it wants to hear from all corners of the industry. It currently is forming four working committees of 5-10 members to speak for those varying interests as it aims to have a system in place for a test run later this year. As these ratings figure to be generated by algorithms, one committee will feature data and programming experts. Racing officials and trainers will weigh in on a conditions and competition committee. There will be an industry committee including experts in sales, breeding, and the international approach. And a fourth group will include top handicappers and bettors, including representatives from computer-robotic wagering teams. The Equibase ratings system project is backed by The Jockey Club, which partners with the tracks on Equibase. Kyle McDoniel, who came on as Equibase president and chief operating officer in May 2023, found the idea on his desk from Day 1. "It was worth exploring," McDoniel said, "especially when applied to solving some of the issues we're hearing about with more frequency." The economic trends of modern racing have exposed a stark necessity for a fresh look at how the best possible betting fields can be assembled on a consistent basis, with the forthright goal of arresting the national slide of pari-mutuel handle on the action at racetracks both large and small. In August 2024, the board of directors of Equibase gave a green light to the development of a ratings system that would assign all horses a rating number by which they could be easily grouped in competitive fields, especially among runners predominantly found in traditional claiming races. Such systems have been in use for decades in major racing centers such as Great Britain, Ireland, and Hong Kong, where claiming races are rare and constant movement of horses between stables is almost nonexistent. Moquett, who as head of strategic projects and business development for Equibase has focused on ratings since his November hire, does not envision a ratings system replacing all North American race conditions or even all claiming races. He sees it as an option for racing secretaries. He suspects that the current races they may be most likely to replace are the events with the conditions that take up half a page to write out in the book. But Moquett, whose father is Breeders' Cup-winning trainer Ron Moquett, doesn't want to speculate too much, preferring to keep an open mind as committees soon get to work. "The races with the funky conditions are probably the place to start," Moquett said, "But we want the industry to tell us." McDoniel said no one envisions a future without claiming races as it's already been made clear that having a way to trade horses on the track is important. But a study of The Jockey Club's Equine Injury Database has found a statistical risk for horses who move to a new barn. Prerace inspection protocols instituted by individual racetracks and states eventually formalized by the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority have made a dent in the rate of serious injury data. With a better understanding of the risk factors, those protocols tab horses who have changed barns as individuals who may need added observation. Backers hope a ratings system could help increase field sizes and starts per horse, and reduce the number of races that fail to fill. Studies have shown that larger fields also draw more wagering interest. "There are benefits for all to simplify the condition book to some extent and maybe to provide more horses to run more often, along with fuller fields," said McDoniel, who came to Equibase from Sportradar, which deals with a variety of professional sports in strategic planning and development. "But we certainly don't want to create unintended consequences," McDoniel added. "So we're talking to a lot of constituencies." McDoniel said he plans to attend the National Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association's annual conference Feb. 24-26 to talk about the idea with what he called "an important constituency." Rick Hammerle, former vice president of racing at Santa Anita Park and currently consulting with Kentucky Downs and 1/ST Racing, is a committee member. He has witnessed the increasing desperation among his racing office colleagues with which condition books and daily "extras" are written to satisfy the smallest constituencies, even to the point where low-level claimers are subdivided with the same narrowcasting as traditional allowance races. "My job as a racing secretary was to not let people think about their choices, make them obvious," Hammerle said. "When I wanted a pair of sneakers as a kid, it was 'low top, high top, black, or white.' Now there's a hundred sneakers on the wall and they're all saying 'pick me, pick me!' That's how it is with all the extras now. With ratings you can combine a bunch of conditions under one choice and be able to see that, 'I'm a 50. There's a 50. Put him in.'" Equibase officials said there are a few racing jurisdictions that already have expressed interest in the idea, and they have a tentative target of early fall 2025 to run some trial races using a ratings system.