McKinzie, Vekoma Duel for Leading Freshman Sire Title

Looking ahead at entries for the top three North American freshman sires, separated by a mere $62,378 in progeny earnings, the contest for the top spot for 2024 seems to be narrowing between Gainesway's McKinzie and Spendthrift Farm's Vekoma. As of Dec. 26, McKinzie owns the lead position on BloodHorse's leading freshman sires list with $2,713,665 in Northern Hemisphere progeny earnings. The son of Street Sense has a $44,523 advantage over Vekoma (by Candy Ride (ARG)) whose runners have earned $2,669,142 year to date. Ashford Stud's Tiz the Law, a son of Constitution, is another $17,855 back in third with $2,651,287. McKinzie has a strong opportunity to widen his lead with six starters entered through Dec. 30. Two of these entries are in stakes: Not Too Late has been cross-entered in the $100,000 Gin Talking Stakes at Laurel Park (Dec. 28) and the $75,000 Parx Future Stars Filly Division Stakes (Dec. 30), and Kinzie Queen is entered in the $175,000 Year's End Stakes at Oaklawn Park (Dec. 29). Wins in the Gin Talking and Year's End would add $159,750 to McKinzie's earnings, while wins in the Parx Future Stars and Year's End stakes could add $143,250. If by some remarkable stroke of racing lucky McKinzie's upcoming starters all won their races, then the sire has the maximum potential to add $298,410 in earnings and push his year-end total above $3 million. Vekoma, meanwhile, has 15 potential starters through Dec. 29 with only one entered in a stakes: Bella Sorella in the $100,000 Louisiana Futurity Stakes (Dec. 29) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. Two maiden special weight starters though could provide the financial muscle needed to wrest the title from McKinzie. Vekoma will be represented by Coaster in a $110,000, six-furlong maiden race Dec. 29 at Oaklawn and by Snare in a $90,000, seven-furlong Dec. 28 maiden race at Aqueduct Racetrack. Wins by these three starters would produce $177,150 in earnings, which is $17,400 more than the maximum earnings possible by McKinzie's stakes starters. Even if these three runners in the most lucrative races don't win, Vekoma could still catch McKinzie just through the racing volume of his potential starters. For example, if the three Vekoma runners entered in the richest races do not win but all of Vekoma's other 12 starters won their races they could amass $369,192, which is nearly $70,800 more than the maximum possible earnings from all of McKinzie's upcoming starters. Tiz the Law has three progeny entered in upcoming races, so he appears to have the narrowest of possibilities to regain the top spot on the sires list. His daughter Tigerish is entered in the $100,000 Blue Norther Stakes (Dec. 28) at Santa Anita Park and another daughter, Legal Empress, is entered in a $110,000 maiden special weight Dec. 29 at Oaklawn. If all three of Tiz the Law's starters become winners, he could add a maximum of $160,700 to his progeny earnings and raise the total to $2,811,987. Tiz the Law could only rise to the top of the standings if McKinzie's upcoming starters do not collectively earn more than $98,400 though the end of the year and Vekoma's starters don't collectively earn more than $142,900.