The Road: Sierra Leone Figures to Land Belmont Stakes

As I search for this year's Belmont Stakes (G1) winner to close out the 2024 edition of The Road with a bit of handicapping, I won't be relying much on trends or history. For the first time the Belmont Stakes (G1) will be contested at Saratoga Race Course and with the change in venue there also will be a change in distance from the traditional 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles when an expected field of 10 3-year-olds breaks from the gate June 8. Of course you probably already know that so I'll get to the handicapping. In a field that includes both Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mystik Dan and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Seize the Grey it's still Sierra Leone who has caught my eye this spring as the crop's top 3-year-old. This year's Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner is a pair of noses away from being undefeated, with those nose margins coming in runner-up finishes in last year's Remsen Stakes (G2) and in his most recent start in the Kentucky Derby. In the time since that Derby effort, late-running Sierra Leone has returned to Chad Brown's barn at Saratoga ahead of Saturday's historic race. The son of Gun Runner has breezed three times since May 18. I'm thinking his talent, the five weeks rest, and the preparations in a comfortable setting add up to another winning effort. One race after Seize the Grey posted a front-running score over seven rivals in the Preakness Stakes, the son of Arrogate will start from the inside post Saturday. The return of Dornoch to the Triple Crown after a slow start in the Derby and the additions of Peter Pan Stakes (G3) winner Antiquarian and the talented Derby day allowance winner Mindframe figure to add some early speed this time around. That said, Sierra Leone already has posted victories in races that were not overloaded with early runners. This is not a horse just picking up the pieces; he's a talented runner who just happens to prefer rallying. His well-documented issues with lugging in turning for home will have his backers paying even closer attention to that always critical point in the race. My guess is he improves in that area and delivers a sixth straight year of three different horses winning the Triple Crown races. I see Sierra Leone as the most likely winner of Saturday's race but Mystik Dan may be the best value play, if he goes off anywhere close to his 5-1 morning-line. Just as he did in the Derby, the son of Goldencents will start from post 3 under Brian Hernandez Jr. Another rail-skimming ride figures to be available if they so choose as the horses inside of him—Seize the Grey and Resilience—both figure to go or at least allow a path to the rail at some point before the first turn. For all of the well-earned praise for Hernandez' Derby-winning ride, check out his magic in getting Mystik Dan from post 9 (number 10) to the inside position in the early going of his runaway victory in the Southwest Stakes (G3). It's worth seeing and makes it pretty clear that a ground-saving trip will be an option, if desired. Like the Derby, I could see another stretch run where Sierra Leone takes aim at catching Mystik Dan. I'll go with another Derby horse for the third choice in Resilience, who impressed in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) but faced a wide trip in the Derby and still finished sixth.