1. Forte
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable/Todd Pletcher
Pedigree: Violence —Queen Caroline, by Blame
Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)
The champion 2-year-old male of 2022 clings to the top spot in the Derby Dozen rankings, having won the Breeders' Futurity (G1) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). His form has been flattered by subsequent efforts from horses such as Instant Coffee, Verifying , and Curly Jack. Red Route One and Frosted Departure were seven lengths and 23 3/4 lengths behind him in the Breeders' Futurity, and those same horses were 5 1/2 lengths and 7 1/2 lengths in arrears of Arabian Knight, respectively, in the Jan. 28 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park. Aimed at the March 4 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
Watch: Baffert's 3-Year-Old Squad Led by Arabian Knight
2. Arabian Knight 
Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert*
Uncle Mo —Borealis Night, by Astrology
Corser Thoroughbreds (KY)
A $2.3 million juvenile purchase last year, he rises to second in the 'Dozen' after splashing to an easy win at Oaklawn Park in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest, a race just as flashy as his successful debut at Keeneland Nov. 5. This uber-talented colt is now favored over Forte in Kentucky Derby (G1) future-book wagering in Nevada racebooks despite Churchill Downs Inc. having banned Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert from competing at its tracks through mid-2023, citing medication violations, and his horses from earning qualifying points toward the May 6 Derby. Future-book bettors are banking that he could qualify for the Derby with a transfer into another stable, which is how Baffert trainees Messier and Taiba made the 2022 race. Baffert also has a Feb. 2 court date in Kentucky, seeking an injunction that could allow him to participate in the Derby.
3. Instant Coffee
Gold Square/Brad Cox
Bolt d'Oro —Follow No One, by Uncle Mo
Sagamore Farm (KY)
The Jan. 21 Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots dips a spot, having been passed by Arabian Knight. Lone defeat from Instant Coffee in four starts came when fourth in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Futurity, and that was a tall second-out order after just a debut win at Saratoga Race Course going seven furlongs. Already with 32 qualifying points for the Derby, he is well positioned (as is Forte) to have enough points to make the Run for the Roses, leaving trainer Brad Cox with the option of spacing out the colt's preps if he so desires.
4. Faustin
Michael Lund Petersen/Bob Baffert*
Curlin — Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun
DATTT Farm (KY)
Though beaten by stablemate Havnameltdown in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) Jan. 29 at Santa Anita Park, he lost little in defeat in his second start after a debut maiden victory. Havnameltdown is a three-time graded stakes-winning sprinter. Faustin has a route pedigree, by 2007-08 Horse of the Year Curlin out of multiple grade 1-winning turf router Hard Not to Like. He just kept coming after his stablemate when second by 1 1/2 lengths in the San Vicente, running his final furlong in about :12 2/5.
5. Verifying
Jonathan Poulin, Westerberg, Mrs. John Magnier, Derrick Smith & Michael B. Tabor/Brad Cox
Justify —Diva Delite, by Repent
Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (KY)
A half brother to filly champion Midnight Bisou and a $775,000 yearling acquisition, he has been first or second in three of four starts, the exception coming when he was sixth behind Forte in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The colt ran the fastest race of his short career in winning a first-level allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn Jan. 14, and he seemed to exit that race in top condition, returning with a :49 1/5 four-furlong workout at Fair Grounds. The Feb. 18 Risen Star Stakes (G2) or the Feb. 25 Rebel Stakes (G2) would appear next.
6. National Treasure
SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Bob Baffert*
Quality Road —Treasure, by Medaglia d'Oro
Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds (KY)
Baffert trains about 90% of the top 3-year-old males in California, among them this colt. Baffert also plans to have a presence in the Feb. 25 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn, where he likes to ship his horses at this time of year when they leave California. National Treasure looks like the type that will benefit from racing. This talented prospect still shows signs of needing seasoning, as reflected by an even-paced third as the favorite in the Jan. 8 Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita after rating inside behind the speed until exiting the final turn.
7. Hejazi
Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert*
Bernardini—G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro
Chester & Mary R. Broman (NY)
A $3.55 million purchase as a 2-year-old, he ran a 105 Equibase Speed Figure in zipping 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:14.58 in breaking his maiden Jan. 8 at Santa Anita—a number that stacks up with Forte's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (105 ESF) and Arabian Knight's Southwest (106 ESF). Hejazi is bred to stretch out and picked up a top-level placing in his only route when third in the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah Stakes (G1) last fall, but he tired late to run third by 8 3/4 lengths to stablemate Cave Rock.
8. Blazing Sevens
Rodeo Creek Racing/Chad Brown
Good Magic —Trophy Girl, by Warrior's Reward
Tracy Farmer (KY)
This one has recorded two works through January, both at three furlongs at Payson Park, with his most recent drill Jan. 28 timed in :38 4/5. A top-level winner at age 2 over Verifying in a sloppy Champagne Stakes (G1), he closed out his freshman campaign with a fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after breaking awkwardly. The jury is still out on his two-turn ability after his success last year came around one turn. He flattened out late when fourth in the Breeders' Cup, admittedly after playing catch-up from his inauspicious beginning.
9. Cave Rock
Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman/Bob Baffert*
Arrogate—Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road
Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing (KY)
He is farther behind others in his training, not having worked in 2023, but he is galloping—leaving the Derby still in play if he can come around quickly. But he has less margin for error than others and can ill afford even a minor setback, hence his placement in the bottom half of the 'Dozen'. On pure talent, he is a top-three prospect. After winning his first three starts, including the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and American Pharoah Stakes (G1), he was hammered to less than 1-2 odds when second to Forte in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Cave Rock galloping this morning. pic.twitter.com/Q7TxGreBnH
— Ernie Belmonte (@ErnieBPhoto93) January 27, 2023
10. Victory Formation
Spendthrift Farm and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations/Brad Cox
Tapwrit —Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike
Gainesway Thoroughbreds (KY)
Perfect in three starts, this speedy colt will likely receive his first graded test in February. He has victories in a maiden race and allowance optional claimer in Kentucky, plus a three-length score in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on New Year's Day. Coming in the middle of the winter, the Smarty Jones typically does not draw the cream of the division, and that again seemed the case this year. Third-place Denington was a next-out fourth in the Lecomte.
11. Curly Jack
Michael McLoughlin/Tom Amoss
Good Magic—Connie and Michael, by Roman Ruler
Betz/J. Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al (KY)
Commenting on this colt's second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) Nov. 26 at Churchill Downs, jockey Edgar Morales said his mount "had nowhere to go, so I just had to wait for something to open, and when it did, he came back to (Instant Coffee), but I was too late... If something opened a little earlier, he should have won the race." Not as fast on speed figures as others, but a candidate for a forward move after winter development. Two works in January at Fair Grounds.
12. Worcester
SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Bob Baffert*
Empire Maker—Lil Super Bear, by Super Saver
Jerry Dixon Revocable Trust & Empire Maker Syndicate (KY)
A twice-sprinted maiden, this up-and-comer lands the final spot in the 'Dozen'. (Others considered included Banishing, Cyclone Mischief, Dubyuhnell, Giant Mischief, Practical Move, Shopper's Revenue, and Tapit Trice.) The reason for the optimism with Worcester? His last-race speed figure, a 102 ESF (among similarly lofty figures from other number providers) for his runner-up finish to Hejazi Jan. 8. Baffert exhibits confidence by running him Feb. 4 in the 1 1/16-mile Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita, where he runs the entire field…of four.
* Author's note: Although Baffert is barred by Churchill Downs Inc. from competing at its tracks through mid-2023 and having his horses earn Derby points this year, some of his leading trainees are included in the Derby Dozen given that they could qualify after transfers into other stables. Baffert has also sued CDI, seeking an injunction that could allow him to participate.
