We are due a final shake-up in the 2022 Cazoo Derby (G1) before a winter break, aren't we? The Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes (G1), which rarely attracts the same hype as the Darley Dewhurst Stakes (G1) due to its place in the racing calendar, has produced five subsequent Epsom winners in its history. Could we see a sixth? The Vertem Futurity is part of the European Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) series.
The most obvious horse to complete the double is Luxembourg, who may have a bigger fanbase than the population of the country he's named after. Already priced up as the general 8-1 favorite for Derby glory, a third consecutive success and first at group 1 level may see his price crumble.
His trainer Aidan O'Brien has won this race four times in the last 10 years, all with favorites and saddled the runner-up on five other occasions in that timeframe. So how does Luxembourg compare to previous Ballydoyle Vertem Futurity runners?
He's certainly bred for the job, being by 2011 Vertem Futurity winner Camelot and has seemingly always been considered the leading light in this division. His Alan Smurfit Memorial Beresford Stakes (G2) victory was not just visually impressive but also earned Luxembourg an RPR of 113—one pound better than the figure achieved by Saxon Warrior in 2017.
That horse went on to deny Roaring Lion in this race. There probably isn't another Roaring Lion in this year's running of the Vertem Futurity, so if Luxembourg possesses the same level of talent as Saxon Warrior then this could become a one-horse show.
Many believed the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (G2), which was run at Newmarket last month, was a one-horse show when Coroebus scooted three lengths clear of his rivals with a furlong to run. Royal Patronage and Jason Hart thought otherwise with a game and gritty success to battle back and pin the Godolphin-owned favorite.
The duo are back and in search of a first group 1 and a four-timer after prior victories in the Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (G3) and a novice event at Epsom. Although he clearly handles contrasting tracks, Doncaster may suit the Mark Johnston-trained juvenile better than most and he's sure to prove difficult to catch if he adopts his customary front-running tactics.
Course form is already established with Bayside Boy, who won the Champagne Stakes (G2) over seven furlongs at this track and boasts the highest official rating (114) in this race. He consistently shapes as if the step up to a mile will suit and ease underfoot is sure to play to his advantage.
Maiden winners Sissoko, McTigue—who represents last year's winning trainer Jim Bolger—and Hannibal Barca have to show significant improvement to beat their more streetwise rivals. The last horse to win the Vertem Futurity straight after their maiden success was Marcel in 2015.
Ten Up For O'Brien?
Aidan O'Brien will draw level with Sir Henry Cecil's record haul of 10 wins in the final group 1 of the season in Britain if Luxembourg can make the successful step up from group 2 company.
The hot favorite is following the same route as subsequent Town Moor scorers St Nicholas Abbey (2009) and Saxon Warrior (2017) in coming straight from a victory in the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh.
Other notables from Ballydoyle on what was formerly the Racing Post Trophy's roll of honor include subsequent classic winners High Chaparral (2001), Luxembourg's sire Camelot (2011), and more recently Magna Grecia (2018).
O'Brien said: "Luxembourg relaxed and did everything lovely in the Beresford. Everything we have asked him to do so far, he has done and done it very nicely.
"He's a big, rangy horse and travels very easily through his races. He's easy to train and very natural really. He quickens up well and has a lot of class. In his two runs, he showed a good turn of foot."
