Early next week, the Breeders' Cup version of college basketball's Selection Sunday takes place Oct. 27, two days following the deadline for pre-entered horses Oct. 25. The Breeders' Cup is Nov. 5-6 at Del Mar.
That means that very soon the participation fate of some Breeders' Cup competitors rests with the field selection panel, who determine those most worthy of competition in oversubscribed contests once "Win and You're In" qualifiers and horses that earned their way into the race with points based on 1-2-3 finishes in graded races join the lineups first.
There are few easy decisions for the panel. Consider that they might have to evaluate a 2-year-old who was third in a grade 2 vs. a runner-up in a grade 3, or weigh a horse from Europe vs. a seemingly comparable one from North America.
Chaired by Tom Robbins, executive vice president of racing at Del Mar, the panel tasked by Breeders' Cup to "establish its own criteria or ranking so that high-quality horses of demonstrated ability will have the opportunity to participate in Championships races regardless of earlier participation in graded events."
On Wednesday, horsemen and fans get their answers on the panel's choices when pre-entered fields and race orders are announced. At that point, the second-guessing can begin.
The Breeders' Cup grass races figure to present the greatest selection challenges, drawing international participation, deep lineups, and in some cases, restricted field sizes. Though most Breeders' Cup races have a capacity field of 14 horses, the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1T) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2T) are capped at 12, according to the Breeders' Cup Horsemen's Guide.
Breeders' Cup officials considered as many as 18 horses as possible pre-entrants for the Turf Sprint in its prospective lineup issued earlier this week and 23 for the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Without defections, that leaves numerous horses stuck as alternates.
Like conference tournament champions in college basketball, the connections of "Win and You're In" winners don't have to sweat out the committee's choices. So in the Turf Sprint, A Case of You, Casa Creed, and Gear Jockey have automatic berths in the five-furlong dash, should their connections not skip the race or pursue another Breeders' Cup event, such as the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented by PDJF (G1T).
The female Charmaine's Mia is also safely in the Turf Sprint on graded stakes points (16). Fast Boat, Golden Pal , and Lieutenant Dan follow her with 10 points apiece.
Averly Jane, One Timer, and Slipstream are automatic "Win and You're In" qualifiers for the Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Other Breeders' Cup races on the grass also figure to draw pre-entered fields close to or beyond capacity. Final entries and post positions for Breeders' Cup races are drawn Nov. 1.
Though this year's two-day Breeders' Cup would appear to have a few short-priced favorites, namely Gamine in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) and Letruska in the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), the majority of the 14 races are shaping up as competitive.
Even in races in which contention runs thin between a few runners, the matchups are compelling, and it is not even too late, though improbable, for an 11th-hour addition to the Breeders' Cup after racing this weekend.
Three years ago, Conrad Farms' Shamrock Rose parlayed a late-October victory in the Lexus Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland to win the Filly & Mare Sprint a couple of weeks later at Churchill Downs for trainer Mark Casse.
